One of the best parts of early spring is taking the temperature of draft prospects. Every winter, we build anticipation around who we think will go in the first round—then the games start. Some players solidify themselves at the top, while others struggle under the pressure and begin to slide.
For all the talk from MLB organizations about avoiding it, recency bias is real. The players who perform in the spring leading up to the draft are the ones who stand out and ultimately hear their names called early.
Below are a few names that are separating themselves as legitimate top 10 prospects in this year’s draft.
Hitters on the Rise
Vahn Lackey, Georgia Tech
Lackey has been my draft obsession recently. After a “down” weekend where he only registered three hits, he saw his stats to start the season fall to .425/.545/.851. He has been the best player in the country and has solidified himself as one of the most well-rounded players in the class.
Coming into the 2025 season, the main question about Lackey was the power. During the 2025 season, he only hit six home runs with 14 doubles. As an above-average defender behind the dish, showing plus bat-to-ball skills, that was enough to have many believe he could be a top-10 selection. Well, this year, he has seen the power surge. He has already hit nine home runs and has added eight doubles and one triple for good measure. On top of the power improvements, he has seen no regression in his plus bat-to-ball skills. Lackey has also seen an improvement in his swing decisions and is close to matching his walk total from the 2025 season. If Lackey was productive enough in 2025 to be a top-10 selection, how high could he go with the improvements?
Those statistical improvements have also shown up in the data. During the 2025 season, Lackey had an 89.3 mph average exit velocity and a 17.1% barrel rate, combined with a 22.8% chase percentage and an 85.7% contact rate. Basically, exactly the hitter his stats said he was. This season, he has a 92.3 mph average exit velocity with a 30% barrel rate, combined with an 85.4% contact percentage and a 15.5% chase rate. Any shortcoming he had coming out of 2025 was improved upon, all while maintaining the skills that had many labeling him as a top-10 selection.
The ability to add a catcher with those offensive skills is going to be a tough decision for the White Sox. So many believed the first overall pick was Roch Cholowsky’s to lose, and little did we know Roch could have a great year and still be pushed.
AJ Gracia, Virginia
It doesn’t take long watching Gracia play to know that he looks like a big leaguer. With a swing that reminds many of Carlos González, the imagination makes you think Gracia is an all-or-nothing power hitter. But through two seasons at Duke, that wasn’t the case. Through two seasons with the Blue Devils, Gracia hit 29 home runs while only slugging .559. That is high-level production, but not the elite production you expect out of a top-five selection.
This spring so far, Gracia has taken a large step forward. Not only has he raised his average from .293 to .352, but he has also shown more consistent power. With a .681 slugging percentage through 25 games, Gracia is getting to his plus raw power more frequently, which, considering the rest of his skill set, makes him a fascinating prospect.
Coming out of last year, Gracia did two things at a very high level: make contact and swing at strikes. He featured an 85.7% contact rate and a 16.9% chase rate. The main concern was the power. Standing at 6’3″, 195 lbs with a beautiful swing tailored to elevating the ball to the pull side, it felt like more of a matter of when, not if, but it was still not certain. This season, it has seemingly become certain.
While the average exit velocity hasn’t changed much, he is hitting the ball harder more frequently. Gracia has a 53.9% hard-hit rate and a 30.3% barrel percentage. Combining that feel for hitting the ball hard in the air with an 85.3% contact rate will make many MLB teams intrigued. Also, considering there is still room to add strength, it is easy to imagine the power continuing to develop in professional baseball.
Chris Hacopian, Texas A&M
Chris Hacopian was widely regarded as one of the best returning hitters in the country. At Maryland in 2025, Hacopian showed an impressive ability to hit for both power and average, finishing the season with a .373/.502/.648 slash line. Combine that production with 40 walks to just 19 strikeouts, and you can see why many thought he could be the best hitter in the country entering this spring.
The concerns surrounding Hacopian had nothing to do with his overall body of work. He performed at a high level, but it was almost crazy to think that there was more in the tank. While he slugged .648 with 14 home runs and 11 doubles, the power output didn’t match the expected output. In the 2025 season, he averaged 93.2 mph exit velocity with a 56.8% hard-hit rate. With those output numbers, you would assume he would push 20–25 home runs easily. But he only hit 14. The power had to come.
So far in the 2026 season, Hacopian started the season injured, but in the games he has played, the contact has continued to be loud. He is averaging 93.4 mph exit velocity, but what makes Hacopian so intriguing is the 87.3% contact rate and 9.1% chase percentage. If he can continue to have elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, eventually the power output is going to match the strength. Hacopian struggled last weekend against a tough Georgia pitching staff, but assuming he continues to stay healthy, the production is going to follow.