Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
On Thursday the Minnesota Twins will take the field against the Baltimore Orioles to kick off their 2026 season. Joe Ryan has been announced as the Opening Day starter vs O’s lefty, Trevor Rogers.
Sportsbooks have the 2026 MN Twins’ regular season over under set at 72.5 total victories, meaning they’re expecting a disaster very similar to what we saw in 2025.
In case you forgot, last year’s Twins finished 72-90 after trading a historic amount of talent at the deadline. Then this offseason, they swapped out executive Pohlad chairs, fired manager Rocco Baldelli and “mutually” walked team president Derek Falvey out the door.
Minnesota Twins players who will define success in 2025
More than likely, this Minnesota Twins team won’t be particularly good. However, there are a couple handfuls of players who, if things break right, could pop up and surprise people this summer. If enough of those players breakout, who knows what could happen.
Of course, that’s a big “if”. But below, I have listed four guys who have the best chance to help turn the tables on this season in Minneapolis. If these guys all perform beyond expectations, the summer could get interesting. If not, we’ll be able to look forward to football season extra early this year.
Mick Abel | SP | 24 y/o
With the loss of Pablo Lopez for the season, there’s immense pressure on the starting rotation to step up, if the 2026 Minnesota Twins are going to find any level of success. We know what Joe Ryan will bring, as long as he’s healthy, but multiple other pitchers will have to pick up the slack, as well.
Enter Mick Abel. There’s arguably no arm in the organization with higher upside than Abel, a post-hype top-100 prospect who throws a fastball near 100 MPH and devastating offspeed stuff.
Mick Abel finished Spring Training looking ready for the Twins rotation.
There was debate going into camp about where he’d start the year. Abel answered it with elite stuff and made a strong case that anything but a rotation spot would look like a mistake. pic.twitter.com/PNI6VdDFWl
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 24, 2026
It’s hard to lean much into Grapefruit League performance, but Abel’s performance this spring was next level. In 22 innings, Abel allowed just five runs on 15 hits, good for a 2.05 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. He also struck out 27 opposing hitters (11.0 SO/9), while walking just four.
Still rookie eligible, Mick Abel will be a rookie of the year candidate, should he continue his impressive spring into the summer. Of course, that is far from guaranteed.
In 2025, Abel struggled after making his big league debut. In 39 innings between Minnesota and Philadelphia (prior to being acquired via trade for Jhoan Duran), the 24-year-old posted a combined 6.23 ERA, 5.11 FIP and 1.513 WHIP.
There’s a top-of-the-rotation potential here, and pairing as a one-two punch with Ryan wouldn’t be shocking. If that happens, the Minnesota Twins could have as formidable of a rotation as they were initially thought to be capable of.
Luke Keaschall | 2B/LF | 23 y/o
Last season MN Twins fans got a look at why Luke Keaschall could be special, this season he can cement that as reality. Now fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery a couple years ago, he’ll primarily play second base but has flexibility to get time in left field.
This spring Keaschall made the Grapefruit League look like child’s play. He batted .377 with a 1.128 OPS, hitting five doubles, two triples, and three home runs in just 56 plate appearances. Maybe even more importantly, the 23-year-old struck out just two times.
Bold Prediction…
Luke Keaschall goes 90/18/80/35/.300 and finishes as a Top-2 second baseman for fantasy.pic.twitter.com/oM7rkOJLAo
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 16, 2026
Byron Buxton is the slugger in the Twins lineup, and Derek Shelton will need Royce Lewis to find his stroke again as well. Near the top of the lineup though, it’s Keaschall that could be a substantial table-setter.
If Minnesota is going to compete, then the lineup will have to be better than the 19th place finish (by fWAR) they posted a season ago. The league has a book on Keaschall now, and he has to show that adjustments have been made on his end as well.
Kody Funderburk | LHP | 29 y/o
At the trade deadline last summer the Minnesota Twins blew up their roster. No area felt that more than the bullpen. This group doesn’t look anywhere close to as good on paper, and they’ll need multiple arms to step up.
Kody Funderburk has produced some really strong minor league numbers (1.78 ERA at Triple-A in 2025), and needs to cement himself at the big league level this year. After a 6.49 ERA in 2024, he owned a 3.51 ERA (3.35 FIP) in 2025.
Kody Funderburk 2026 projections via @fangraphs depth charts
65 appearances
65 IP
3.86 ERA
3.89 FIP
8.56 K/9
0.4 fWAR pic.twitter.com/Gu9fXrRthr
— SleeperTwins (@SleeperMLBTwins) February 6, 2026
As one of three lefties in Shelton’s bullpen (joined by Taylor Rogers and Anthony Banda), Funderburk is expected to pitch the lowest leverage innings. The more he can elevate his status among the hierarchy, the better off the group can be.
Funderburk doesn’t need to establish himself as a closer, or even setup man. What he can help to achieve is raising the bar of the bottom rungs in the bullpen. Providing that confidence, and ultimately output, could save the Minnesota Twins relief corps from rotating deck chairs.
Brooks Lee | SS | 25 y/o
If Luke Keaschall is going to be the young star hitter, then Brooks Lee needs to be the post-hype rebound candidate. At 25 years old, he’s hardly past his prime. The problem is that he has shown none of his carrying traits at the big league level.
Lee was never expected to be a stellar defensive shortstop, but he was supposed to fall out of bed and hit. In 712 career plate appearances he owns just a .232/.279/.357 slash line. Last season, in 139 games, Lee batted .236/.285/.370.
Brooks gets us within 1! pic.twitter.com/8N0jvMoi5u
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) March 24, 2026
Kaelen Culpepper is starting the year at Triple-A St. Paul. The longer Lee can keep him there, the better off the Minnesota Twins will be. That will require the starting shortstop to hit for average, and be much better than the -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) he was worth a season ago.
Minnesota dumped Carlos Correa to shed salary. They don’t have an ideal shortstop candidate to replace him. Lee proving he is the answer would be a nice rebound towards what the MN Twins expected when making him the 8th overall pick.
Mentioned in this article: Brooks Lee Kody Funderburk Luke Keaschall Mick Abel
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