The Arizona Diamondbacks are about to begin a new 162-game journey, beginning with three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.
But beyond those three games, a marathon awaits. As much as every game may ultimately matter, there is a lot of baseball to be played before any conclusions are drawn.
With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for how the 2026 season will unfold in Arizona:
1: Positive pitching regression helps Diamondbacks make playoffs
Regression is a cruel reality — unless it’s working in a team’s favor. The fact is, almost everything that could have gone wrong for the D-backs’ pitching staff in 2025 did go wrong.
Arizona’s 4.82 bullpen ERA ranked fourth-worst in MLB. Their No. 1 starter (Zac Gallen) had the worst ERA of his major league career. The team converted a staggeringly-low 59% of save opportunities — and that’s not even discussing the brutal slate of injuries Arizona had to endure.
There is still certainly a new low that could be found, but I’m predicting positive regression for Arizona’s collective staff.
Maybe it won’t look like Cy Young-caliber numbers, but slight-to-moderate improvement that simply comes as a result of the little things — better defense, a slight uptick in velocity, etc.
This may not seem exactly bold, but the bold part of the prediction is that these marginal amounts of positive regression could end up swinging Arizona’s record significantly.
The Diamondbacks went 21-28 in one-run games in 2025. Arizona would have made the playoffs with a record of 87-75 if every one-run game result flipped to its opposite outcome.
Even a minor decrease in ERA (and some improved situational pitching), could have easily held on to some of their numerous blown games, and that was what hurt the D-backs the most in 2025.
2: Ryne Nelson unlocks even higher ceiling
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field in Phoenix, on Sept. 24, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Ryne Nelson pitched to a 3.39 ERA in the 2025 season and was Arizona’s best starting pitcher. I believe he has an even higher gear left to reach.
Nelson began the 2025 season in the bullpen, and had an unsightly ERA in that role. In his 23 starts, his actual results came out to a 3.16 ERA — an ace-like number. On top of that, Nelson was held to strict pitch counts and innings restrictions due to the reliever-to-starter transition.
Once those restrictions began to loosen, Nelson consistently delivered efficient, lengthy outings. He will enter 2026 without needing that leash, and looked to be even sharper in spring training than he was a year ago.
His secondary pitches have a bit more shape, and his fastball (which was tied for the most valuable pitch in baseball in 2025) was reading in the 97-98 MPH range even in the final inning of his last Cactus League start. Nelson has more to offer, and he will have an opportunity to do so in 2026.
3: Jordan Lawlar reminds Diamondbacks why he was their No. 1 prospect
Arizona Diamondbacks’ Jordan Lawlar reacts after scoring on a sacrifice fly hit by Tim Tawa against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning during a spring training game on March 16, 2026, at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
It has not been an easy journey for Jordan Lawlar, and he knows that as well as anyone. But he handled his transition to an outfield role extremely well in spring training, and is showing signs of significant improvement offensively.
He’s been solid in the outfield, relying on premium athleticism to make plays. At the plate, he’s been hitting the ball hard, with a .333/.448/.604 Cactus League slash and four homers.
More importantly, he took walks at a near-17% clip, limited strikeouts and showed an ability to hit off-speed pitches from right-handers — all areas he needs to improve at the major league level.
It may not be NL MVP numbers, but I predict Lawlar will put forward a top-four season offensively in 2026, keeping pace with some of the D-backs’ top stars — with some highlight-reel defense sprinkled in.