2025 was a brutal year for the Baltimore Orioles.

By Memorial Day, the season was effectively over, and Manager Brandon Hyde was fired.
70 different players wore an O’s uniform, with only 2 players managing to play in more than 94 games.
There weren’t a lot of positive vibes to be found in Birdland, when the ’25 season mercifully ended September 28th.
With a 75-87 record that left the O’s 19 games back of AL East Division (And AL Champion) Toronto, the O’s had plenty of work to do entering the off-season.

Entering his 8th year at the helm, Orioles President of Baseball Operations & General Manager Mike Elias sought to augment what existed.

He added Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, along with a return engagement for Andrew Kittredge.
He also added Craig Albernaz as the new Manager, along with additional new coaches.

With those additions ’25 feels a bit like a distant bad dream.
At the minimum, the acquisitions have allowed the O’s to turn the page on last year, and start fresh.

A 162 game MLB season makes for a long year.
The seasonality of baseball is part of the allure of the sport.

A season dies in Autumn with leaves falling to the ground, and temperatures plummeting.
Over the course of a long-dark Winter, news is generally scarce.
You wake up in the dark, and scrape the ice off the car.
You see the sun set before 5, everyday feels colder, and you wonder if warmer days will ever come?

It’s always enjoyable when Pitchers and Catchers finally arrive in Florida, and you get those initial images of Spring from 1,000 miles away.
There are the pings of jealously for that February Sarasota weather, but also excitement knowing each day brings us closer to Opening Day.
You can start to hear Don Henley’s The Boys of Summer.
You can picture hot and hazy days watching a game and enjoying a cold beer.
You’ve made it through another Winter, and life is good again.

The trees aren’t fully in-bloom yet in Baltimore, but it will be 75 degrees as the 2026 Orioles are introduced and run down the orange carpet tomorrow.
Spring has arrived, and hope springs eternal.

Quick Hits

The AL East 

It’s expected that 4 of the 10 best teams in the game are in the East.
In all of the various Power Rankings from National sites, the O’s are generally staring the year looked as the 10th to 14h best team in baseball, and the 4th best team in their own division.
Most of the Power Rankings have Toronto, New York, and Boston all amongst the Top 7 teams overall.
The Orioles have 52 games vs. their Divisional foes.
My first goal for the year would be winning the division.

I think playoff baseball has a lot of luck involved with those short-series.
That’s the way it goes.
The whole point is to earn your way there, and have a chance.

Most people currently expect the East to send 3 teams to the playoffs.
That may well happen, or the East teams might beat up on each other to a point that it opens the door for a surprise team in the Central and West to grab a Wild Card.
Win the East, and don’t be reliant on a Wild Card.

Westburg

Jordan Westburg’s injury has table some of my enthusiasm.

Westburg’s return timeline remains uncertain, though he is confirmed to be out through at least April.

Treatment: He received a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection on February 20 to avoid Tommy John surgery.
Activity Level: He is currently performing non-throwing and non-hitting activities, such as running bases and taking ground balls.
Potential Return: Estimates suggest a return between early May and early June, possibly starting as a designated hitter before returning to the field.

If he’s back in June, and can stay in the lineup; that’s great.
If he ends up being out for the year, that’s a blow.
I like his bat and positional versatility.  Also think he plays with a chip on his shoulder, and that’s something this team needs.

Mayo At 3rd

With Westburg starting the year on the IL, the door has opened for Coby Mayo.

Mayo will begin the year as the O’s 3rd baseman.

We know Mayo won’t be good defensively.
He has a strong arm, but it’s not overly accurate.
He lumbers a bit, and isn’t especially fluid.
The footwork isn’t great.
I’m not going to crush the guy everyday when he doesn’t look like 2013 Manny Machado at the hot-corner.
The expectations for him defensively are minimal.
He just needs to not be a total trainwreck, and regularly make the routine plays.
And of course, he needs to hit.
It seems clear that there will be defensive replacements in close and late.

Mayo and Basallo Offensively

Nobody currently has a firm grasp on what Mayo and Samuel Basallo are going to provide offensively this year.
They both have upside and plus power.
I don’t think the O’s need either to be overly productive for the offense to be good.
If the light goes on for either of them, a quality lineup gains additional depth.
If they are both producing regularly out of the gate, the offense should be excellent.

The OF

Colton Cowser needs to bounce back offensively (I think he will), and be good defensively in CF.
I think he can be excellent in LF, and average to slightly above average in CF.

It’s a significant issue for the ’26 O’s if Cowser doesn’t hold down CF.
If the bat doesn’t rebound, he might start feeling footsteps from Enrique Bradfield who will start at AAA.
Bradfield’s bat will always be a question, but his speed and defense are known quantities.
If Cowser isn’t doing enough offensively, having an excellent fielding Bradfield holding down CF will become more enticing.

The hope with Ward is that he’s near average in LF.
That might be difficult with the large LF at OPACY.
If Ward gives the O’s 35 homers, with an .775 OPS, and average LF defense; that’s a win.

Tyler O’Neill didn’t exactly endear himself to O’s fans last year.
He was limited to 54 games, and had a sub .200 batting average, with below average defense.
I think I’m generally higher on TON than most.
I think if he can manage to play 110 games, he’ll be productive offensively.
I’m not real excited about picturing the O’s OF defense when it’s Ward and TON to the left and right of Cowser.

I like Dylan Beavers, and given TON’s injury history, it’s a good bet that Beavers ends up starting regularly in RF.

Heston Kjerstad is kind of forgotten about at this point by most, but I still think he has a chance to factor.
Kjerstad had a horrible 156 ab’s with the O’s in ’26, and his struggles continued in the Minors before being shut-down.
He was beamed in New York in July 2024, and I wondered if that continued to impact him last year.
He didn’t appear comfortable in the batter’s box, and I’ve seen some suggest he possibly suffered lingering physical aliments.
This Spring, he seemed to be past whatever was impacting him in ’25.
He’ll start the year in Norfolk, and have to earn his way back.
If he hits enough, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an opportunity open up for him to return to the Majors at some point.

Year 3 for Jackson Holliday

Holliday took a step-forward offensively last year, but still finished with a sub. 700 OPS (.314 on-base %).
He’ll start the year on the IL, with a rehab outing set for Friday.
When he returns to the O’s, you’d like to see another leap with the bat, and we also need to see less mistakes on the basepaths.
Defensively the metrics hated him at 2nd last year.
I won’t dispute those numbers, but I thought he actually looked a bit more comfortable at 2nd in ’25 than he had as rookie in ’24.
He’s not Robbie Alomar with the glove. He’s not even Brian Roberts.  He does need to be more average, and less liability this year.
It feels like people forget he was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball entering ’24.
Him blowing up, and having a strong ’26 is certainly possible.

How Do The O’s Handle DH?

Adley Rutschman caught 102 games in ’24, and 90 in ’25.
How many games does he catch in ’26?
How do the O’s feel about Basallo behind the plate?
Does Basallo get more time catching than a normal backup?
If Rutschman is healthy all year, he probably plays 130 total games.
A good portion of them will come at DH.
Basallo likely starts the year getting most of his ab’s at DH.
TON will get time at DH as well. Especially if the bat is playing, and the O’s prefer Beavers defense in RF.
What happens if we get to June, and Westburg has returned, and Mayo has been productive offensively?
At that point, the O’s would want Westburg’s defense, but they’d also be looking to continue to find Mayo ab’s somewhere.
Ryan Mountcastle begins the year on the O’s roster. That might not last long, but he’s another candidate for DH ab’s early on.

The Rotation Can Be Good

Love Kyle Bradish, but there is a question of how many innings does he have in his arm this year?
Do they try and limit his innings during the year, to get him through the season?
Do they occasionally skip him?

Opening Day starter Trevor Rogers was ridiculous in the Majors last year. He was a legitimate Ace for 18 starts. This was after he looked like a 5th or worse in ’24.
Can he be a consistent 3 that flashes?

I liked the Baz addition. The stuff is excellent, and he regularly took the ball last year for Tampa Bay. He could be in-line for a big year.

Chris Bassit is already providing the O’s some needed leadership.
Zach Eflin seems to be past the back injuries which impacted his ’25.
Dean Kremer has made 85 starts for the O’s the last 3 years, and will begin the year at AAA. Expect he’ll be back up sooner than later.

The Bullpen

As always the bullpen will be mostly tied to the rotation in-front of them.
If the rotation is good, the pen has a chance to settle in.
I do like that Tyler Wells is in the pen.
Helsley getting off to a good start, and putting some saves in the books before his first failure will help reduce some worries about the pen.
If he were to struggle, that would be difficult to get past.
The bullpen has questions. Things can come together if he’s an All-Star caliber closer, and become a bit precarious if he’s not.
I fully expect that the O’s will pursue a high leverage guy at the deadline.
There is some minimal hope that Felix Bautista could be ready to join the O’s late in the 2nd half.

Adley Rutschman

It’s ridiculous that Rutschman has just 37 doubles in his last 893 ab’s.
I’d really like to see him fill the gaps with a bunch of liners vs. continue his focus on launch angle.
He’s too talented to be Captain Pop Up for another season.
I know talking about batting average in 2026 is stone-age stuff, but there’s no reason for Adley to be a .220 hitter.
Raise the average, get on-base at a high clip, put up 40 doubles.  Those should be reasonable goals.
Prediction – Rutschman (who is a Free Agent after the 2027 season) signs an in-season extension.

The Power Is Back

The ’25 O’s were 19th in slugging after being 3rd in ’24.
That won’t happen again.
Alonso and Ward give the lineup legit thump and depth.

Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar is the Most Valuable Oriole before a pitch is thrown in this ’26 season.
The Birds need the version of Gunnar which was ’24 MVP caliber, vs. the ’25 version of Gunnar which was All-Star caliber.
Here’s a challenge for Gunnar – match Bobby Witt Jr’s production.

Thoughts On Albernaz?

I gave my larger thoughts here. 

General take is that if they have more guys consistently in the lineup, and regularly taking the ball every 5th… they’ll look more cohesive, better organized, etc.
The O’s are well positioned to rebound, and Albernaz will get (and deserve some) credit for that.

Predictions?

The O’s won 75 games last year with everything going wrong. They actually went 60-59 under Tony Mansolino with constant lineup turnover, and under production.
90 wins and a Wild Card birth seems like a reasonable prediction to me. 95 wins and the East Title is the goal.
The power is good. The rotation looks good. The overall depth is good.
There are pieces you can expect to rebound, and pieces that have the potential to be emerge as really productive.
The bullpen is a bit of a question.
The East will be difficult as always.

I like that the O’s have enough in their system to go augment in-season if they need to.
I’d feel a bit better if I knew if Westburg would definitely be back in June, but overall I feel good.

Here were some National predictions about the O’s this week.

ESPN: MLB 2026 season preview: Rankings, every team’s playoff odds

12. Baltimore Orioles
Projected record: 86-76 | (Doolittle’s odds: 54% playoff | 3.5% WS)

The Ringer: Power Rankings

11. Baltimore Orioles
Over/under 85.5 wins: Over

CBS Sports: AL East Predictions

5 writers, two pick the O’s to finish 3rd in the East, 3 pick the O’s to finish 4th.

MLB.com: Power Rankings

10. Orioles (9)

CBS Sports: Power Rankings

14. Orioles

Tim Britton in The Athletic:

12. Baltimore Orioles (12.4), Playoff odds: 52.1 percent

Keith Law in The Athletic (picks the O’s to finish 88-74, second in the AL East, 3 games behind the Yankees and then losing to the Mariners in the ALDS.)

MLB.com: Expert Picks

Fifty-seven MLB.com staff members polled, Orioles Picked as the 3rd WC

Chris Stoner

Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.