Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres on Friday’s MLB slate.

The MLB is back! There’s just something about the first few weeks of baseball season that seem magical — the emerald-green grass, the chatter from the bleachers before the crack of a bat and the way the crowd builds into a collective cheer or sigh depending on the trajectory of that stitched and leather-bound sphere.

Opening Day was far from kind to the San Diego Padres, who suffered an 8-2 home loss to the Detroit Tigers. Friday night brings an opportunity for the home team to bounce back, but the big storyline will be the debut for the visitors’ prized offseason acquisition, Framber Valdez.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Tigers vs. Padres matchup, courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Padres prediction, preview

The Tigers looked like a World Series favorite for much of 2025 but faltered down the stretch before finishing 87-75, seeing the Guardians pass them for the AL Central title in the final days of the regular season. Falling short in the Wild Card ended their postseason early, but they reloaded in the offseason with the signing of ace pitcher Framber Valdez to add alongside multi-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Reliever Kenley Jansen also came over to bolster the bullpen, so they did well to add to a successful core. Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez all earned All-Star nods last season and return alongside Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson to form what should once again be an excellent lineup. They got off to a hot start with 12 hits in the opening game of the campaign against Nick Pivetta, so momentum is already building.

Meanwhile, the Padres finished just three games shy of an NL West title last season at 90-72. Much like the Tigers, their playoff run ended prematurely in the Wild Card Round. However, they lost some very important figures headlined by Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn. They did manage to retain Michael King and brought in infielder Sun-mun Song, who was excellent playing professionally in Korea. Miguel Andujar is another big add coming off a great season, so there are avenues for this offense to improve with those new names playing next to Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and more. They just didn’t show it to start 2026 with only five hits yesterday, though one can almost excuse the poor showing since they faced off against Skubal.

On Friday, the Tigers will start Valdez. The left-handed hurler delivered a mixed bag of results with an excellent first half and poor second half last season, but finished with a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP to complement 187 punchouts in 192 innings. He’s one of the best ground-ball pitchers in the MLB and brings a four-pitch mix of breaking and offspeed options.

The Padres deploy King here, an excellent right-handed arm. He pitched to the tune of a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 76 punchouts in 73.1 innings last season, a campaign that was marred by injury. He delivered 97th-percentile offspeed run value and 84th-percentile exit velocity in 2025, and now healthier, he should look more like his old self.

Tigers vs. Padres pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Padres are -130 home favorites on the Moneyline while the Tigers hold +108 odds to win outright. The combined run total sits at 7.5 for this contest.

Best Bet: Framber Valdez eight or fewer hits + walks + earned runs allowed (+110)

Spring Training was a display of what could be for Valdez in a Tigers uniform. The veteran pitched 18.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and just two earned runs on 17 hits, walking two batters in the process. That came out to a 1.04 WHIP and 0.98 ERA. He looked awesome and is generally much better at the start of seasons than at the end of them. The Padres were worse against lefties than righties in 2025 and still have much of that core in place, so I like Valdez to put forth an excellent first real start for Detroit.

Strong Lean: Michael King over 7.5 hits + walks + earned runs allowed (-115)

We’re using similar logic, albeit in the opposite direction with our other pick here. King should get back into the swing of things this season with better health, but man, was Spring Training brutal for him. In 17.2 innings, he gave up 26 hits, 20 earned runs, nine homers and seven walks. Yes, you read that right. His confidence is surely low at the moment and the pressure is on for a contest against another playoff team while dueling an ace. He may have a rough night.