Charlie Cummings previews Saturday’s MLB matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals and provides his best pick.

The Rays and Cardinals gave us one of the most exciting games of Opening Day. Tied 1-1 after five innings, the two teams combined for 14 total runs in the sixth inning, resulting in a 9-7 Cardinals victory. Can these two teams produce more excitement on Saturday?

First pitch is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. The two teams are dead even on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at O/U 7.5 runs. Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Rays-Cardinals game.

Rays vs. Cardinals Preview

First, let’s break down the pitching matchup.

Joe Boyle is a raw ball of clay for the Tampa Bay Rays to mold. Six feet and eight inches tall, armed with an electric fastball, he has all the talent you want to see. But last year’s results were subpar. Boyle drew one of the worst chase rates in the league with a seventh percentile average exit velocity and a fourth percentile walk rate. Free baserunners and loud contact are a bad equation. However, he did finish with an acceptable 4.05 xERA and .218 xBA. The ability to miss bats in the zone pays off. And if this new sweeper is the goods, he might find those chased strikes again.

Michael McGreevy, the Cardinals starter, is a very different kind of hurler. He mixes in six different pitches: four seamer, sinker, sweeper, curveball, changeup and cutter. None of those pitches has exceptional velocity or movement. He does have strong command, posting a 93rd-percentile walk rate last season, and gets a good amount of ground balls.

But it’s hard to pitch in the modern game without true swing-and-miss stuff: McGreevy was 19th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velo, chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. That’s a problem he is going to have to solve if he wants to be a long-term piece in this Cardinals rotation.

These lineups sure brought some pleasant surprises on Thursday. The usual suspects for the Rays – Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero – all made their presence felt. But they were backed up by glove-first players like Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Fortes, who combined to go 8-for-12 with four RBI and two runs scored. Any offensive punch from those guys has to be seen as a bonus.

On paper, the Cardinals have one of the worst lineups in baseball. Yet they managed to put up nine runs on the back of Alec Burleson (3/4, two-run homer), Nathan Church (3/4, 2 RBI) and Victor Scott II (3/4, 2 SB). St. Louis also welcomed top prospect JJ Wetherholt to the show, and he rewarded their faith by cranking the first home run of his career.

On an 0-2 pitch out of the zone! Now that’s a big-league dinger.

Bullpens aren’t exactly a strength for either of these teams, but Tampa Bay does bring an edge here. Griffin Jax is an elite pen arm, while Garrett Cleavinger has had his moments. Edwin Uceta and Bryan Baker are capable middle relief arms. It’s a good enough bridge to get from Boyle to the end of the game.

Rays vs. Cardinals Pick, Best Bet

This one rightfully feels like a toss-up. But I’m going to trust the better starter here. Boyle has produced better results in his limited MLB time, while McGreevy has been knocked around a fair bit. His contact-inducing style won’t work as well against a team with lots of power and speed like the Rays. I’ll take the Rays on the coin flip.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-110)