Updated:
Mar 28, 2026 , 01:09 PM ET
• 4 min read
Ponnaiya’s prediction: Three-time All-Star Sonny Gray is poised for a bounce-back year as he makes his Red Sox debut.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Boston Red Sox starter Sonny Gray delivers a pitch.
The Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds face off at Great American Ball Park this afternoon.
Boston took the season opener behind a strong start from Chris Sale, and my Red Sox vs. Reds predictions are betting on the visitors to prevail once more.
Here are my best free MLB picks for Saturday, March 28.
Red Sox vs Reds predictions
Red Sox vs Reds best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-144)
There isn’t much separating these lineups, both of which need young offensive talent to step up. The Cincinnati Reds have a few more holes, while the Boston Red Sox lack some firepower down the middle.
This game will come down to pitching, and Boston holds the edge. While both starters posted similar numbers last year —Sonny Gray posted a 4.28 ERA, and Brady Singer finished with a 4.27 xERA — Gray’s underlying metrics were extremely impressive, boasting a 3.39 FIP and a .332 BABIP that suggested he was unlucky.
With the Red Sox also boasting the better bullpen, back them on the moneyline.
COVERS INTEL: Among all qualifying starters last year, Sonny Gray ranked sixth in SIERA (3.29), 12th in strikeout rate (26.7%), and fifth in walk rate (5%).
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Red Sox vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
The Reds mustered just four hits on Thursday, but three of them came from NL ROTY candidate Sal Stewart. The Red Sox also got a big game from their highly-regarded young slugger Roman Anthony, who also went 3-for-4.
Let’s back both future stars to produce again, with Anthony leading his team to victory with 2+ total bases.
Red Sox vs Reds SGP
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 hits
Roman Anthony Over 1.5 total bases
Red Sox moneyline
Red Sox vs Reds home run pick: Wilyer Abreu (+420)
Wilyer Abreu mashed 22 homers in just 115 games last year, with 21 of those dingers against righties like Singer.
Singer’s best pitches are breaking balls (slider and sweeper), which he threw 39.5% of the time last season. His sinker made up 40.6% of his arsenal, but he got knocked around on that pitch, with opponents slugging .469.
Abreu sported an impressive .310 batting average against sinkers while slugging .556 against breaking balls in 2025. With his ability to crush Singer’s offerings at a home-run-friendly park, getting Abreu’s HR prop at +420 is a bargain.
2026 MLB Transparency record
Best bets: 2-0, +2 units
SGPs: 1-1, +2.72 units
HR picks: 1-1, +1.4 units
Red Sox vs Reds odds
Moneyline: Red Sox -144 | Reds +122
Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+110) | Reds +1.5 (-132)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Red Sox vs Reds trend
Boston has covered the run line in 42 of its last 73 road games (+10.55 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Reds.
How to watch Red Sox vs Reds and game info
Location
Stadium, City, State/Province
Date
Saturday, March 28, 2026
First pitch
4:10 p.m. ET
TV
NESN
Red Sox starting pitcher
Sonny Gray
(2025: 14-8, 4.28 ERA)
Reds starting pitcher
Brady Singer
(2025: 14-12, 4.03 ERA)
Red Sox vs Reds latest injuries
Red Sox vs Reds weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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