Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Washington Nationals and the Chicago Cubs.
Game No. 1 of the MLB regular season is upon us, and we’ve got an afternoon clash of National League teams with very different expectation levels at Wrigley Field. In 2026, the Cubs will be looking to win the NL Central for the first time since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Meanwhile, the Nationals are in the midst of a rebuild. They’ll just be looking to not embarrass themselves.
Things get underway at 2:20 p.m. ET. Chicago is understandably a hefty -232 favorite on the moneyline.
Let’s preview this Opening Day afternoon matinee with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Matthew Boyd being the Cubs’ Opening Day starter is a microcosm of the team’s biggest flaw in 2026. For as much as Chicago’s lineup suggests it’ll be a real contender for the World Series, this rotation is pretty underwhelming. Specific to Boyd, the issue is a matter of recency bias. The 35-year-old was a deserving All-Star in 2025, pitching to a 2.34 ERA over the season’s first half. However, the southpaw unraveled at the seams across August and September, mustering a paltry 4.82 ERA and 19.3% strikeout rate over a 56.0 inning sample. Boyd was slightly more successful in his three playoff appearances, though he didn’t make it out of the first inning of Game 1 of the NLDS against the Brewers. It was a real mixed bag, and the impression it left wasn’t made any better by a rough bullpen outing for Team USA at the WBC.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, we find Cade Cavalli. Though there aren’t many names on the Nationals’ staff to get excited about, count me among those all-in on the former first-round pick in 2026. We didn’t get a massive view of Cavalli in 2025, he made only 10 starts at the MLB level, but his advanced stats build a very promising profile. The right-hander combined a 95th percentile chase rate (33.9%) with a 95th percentile opponent barrel rate (4.4%), meaning Cavalli induced both poor swings and poor contact. He also passes an eye test with flying colors. The man is 6’4, 225 pounds with a fastball that averaged 97.0 mph. If he were wearing pinstripes, and not a curly “W” on his jersey, I think people would be paying a little more attention.
As referenced above, this won’t be an easy matchup for Cavalli. The Cubs ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ last season (110), and while the club has lost Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman is a more than capable replacement. Still, it is late March in Chicago. A quick glance at the weather report tells us we’ll be dealing with 10-15 mph winds blowing in off the lake. It’s just 50 degrees, too. Wrigley can either play like an elite pitcher’s park or an elite hitter’s park. Today? It’s the former.
Nationals vs. Cubs pick, best bet
The wind is blowing in at Wrigley, Cade Cavalli is better than you think, and the Nationals should have a lineup that ranks in the bottom third of the league when the season is said and done.
Strong Lean: Cade Cavalli 5+ Strikeouts (+135)
Cavalli’s 95th percentile chase rate (33.9%) and swinging strike rate (12.4%) suggest there’s a few more strikeouts in this right arm than we saw in 2025. At plus money, I believe the RHP can get over this modest prop.