It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: Fox (national broadcast)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 65° and clear, 7 mph wind
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dom Smith (DH)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
Quick thoughts:
As expected, Yastrzemski and Dom Smith check in versus a righty starter. While I don’t know if Yaz will get subbed out late if he’s facing a lefty reliever, watch for Atlanta to potentially pinch hit for Dom Smith late if it’s close and they don’t like the matchup against KC lefties Matt Strahm or Daniel Lynch.
Manager Walt Weiss indicated earlier in spring that he wouldn’t be afraid to bat lefties Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson back to back, and he’s doing that tonight. With two righties in Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley buttressing them, I don’t think it’s an issue.
3B Maikel Garcia (R)
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (R)
1B Vinnie Pasquantino (L)
C Salvador Perez (R)
DH Carter Jensen (L)
2B Jonathan India (R)
RF Jac Caglianone (L)
LF Isaac Collins (S)
CF Kyle Isbel (L)
Quick thoughts:
A much more balanced lineup here for Kansas City, with no obvious platoon lanes to take advantage of late.
With Jensen moving up in the order and Caglianone checking into right field, the middle third has a lot more power potential than last night. López needs to be cautious about not hanging a breaking ball here.
While Kyle Isbel is considered to be “Nick Allen, but in the outfield” in the #9 hole, I think he’s a little underrated as a defense and contact bat. Watch for him to do everything possible to get on base ahead of Maikel Garcia and the top of the order.
Quick snapshot (2024):
1.99 ERA / 3.91 xERA / 2.92 FIP
27.3 K% / 7.7 BB% / 1.8% HR
Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 95.5 mph)
vs RHH: 56% 4S, 42% slider, 2% curveball, 1% changeup
vs LHH: 55% 4S, 20% slider, 19% curveball, 7% changeup
What to watch:
This is the massive unknown; López made just one start last season before missing the rest of the year for shoulder surgery and then has had variable performance (and velocity) through spring. He’s reportedly mechanically sound and fully healthy for the first time in multiple seasons, but I still have no idea what to expect from a pitch usage perspective.
His previous game plan was clearly very Strider-esque against righties: mostly heater and slider, with just occasional curveballs and changeups. Lefties saw almost equal usage of the two secondaries, with the goal being in-zone fastballs to generate whiffs and then sliders and curveballs for chase.
Quick reminder, as it comes up every López start: He’s probably the Braves pitcher that is most likely to intentionally throw below his max early in at-bats or innings, then ramping up to the high-90s with runners on base or two outs. He’s got that reliever in him.
Quick snapshot (2025):
The arsenal (2025):
Pitch 1 = 4S FB, 27% usage, 93.1 mph
Pitch 2 = changeup, 25% usage
Pitch 3 = cutter, 15% usage
Pitch 4 = sinker, 13%
Pitch 5 = slider, 12% usage
Pitch 6 = curveball, 8% usage
Wacha is the platonic ideal of a “kitchen sink” guy, capable of using and locating six different pitches in any given at-bat. That being said, even he has some platoon tendencies.
Against lefties, he leads with equal four-seamer and changeup usage, supplementing with the cutter and curveball and then merely sprinkling in the sinker and slider.
Righties, however, see four different pitches at least 15% of the time, a true kitchen sink approach. His usage pattern there is sinker/four-seamer and slider (tied)/changeup/cutter/curveball
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Good luck. Knowing what is coming tonight or even being able to sit on a frequently-used pitch is going to be almost impossible in all but the most extreme of situations (3-0, essentially). It’s a true test of hitting and pitch recognition that I don’t think we talk about enough.
No Braves hitter has seen Wacha more than nine times, although some do have good performance in that limited sample size:
Mike Yastrzemski is 3-9 with a homer, while Austin Riley is just 2-7 but both of those hits have been homers.
Flip side of this is that Ozzie Albies is just 1-9, albeit with two RBI, and Ronald Acuña Jr. is 2-9 with a RBI.
Potential limitations:
I’m guessing the plan is to try and stay away from Robert Suarez if possible, although Weiss won’t risk a win for it; they’d just make him ‘down’ for Sunday.
Quick takeaway:
Weiss’s usage yesterday was Dylan Lee for the 7th, Robert Suarez for the 8th, and Tyler Kinley for the 9th. Lee got two lefties and a switch hitter, Suarez got a lefty and then some righties, while Kinley came into the now blown-open game for a lefty in Vinnie Pasquantino and then got a lefty pinch-hitter (Jac Caglianone) and a righty. So far, so good for what I was looking for from the bullpen deployment.
We didn’t need it yesterday with Sale going six, but the question of who covers bulk innings is still lingering. At this point, I don’t know if either Didier Fuentes or José Suarez could take more than an inning or two and then be ready for the game five start on Tuesday. Maybe Aaron Bummer gets the assignment? Let’s hope we don’t need to find out.
The top of Atlanta’s order vs Ragans – can they generate traffic and run up his pitch count?
This is our first look at Dom Smith as the designated hitter. Can he handle himself out there, or is this going to be a problem area for Atlanta until they can get Sean Murphy back in the lineup?
It’s finally Opening Day, and the Braves are poised to start the season in the win column. I like Atlanta’s chances of getting to Ragans in the first inning and then handing a lead over to their bullpen.