Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres on Saturday’s MLB slate.

The MLB is back! There’s just something about the first few weeks of baseball season that seems magical — the emerald-green grass, the chatter from the bleachers before the crack of a bat and the way the crowd builds into a collective cheer or sigh depending on the trajectory of that stitched, leather-bound sphere.

The Detroit Tigers have taken the first two games of the new season on the road, downing the San Diego Padres 8-2 and 5-2 to begin the year. This series concludes with tonight’s game at 8:40 p.m. ET. With a sweep on the line, Detroit is looking to bring out the broom — can San Diego defend its home park though?

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Saturday’s Tigers vs. Padres matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Padres prediction, preview

Last season, the Tigers went 87-75 before falling short in the ALDS. After an offseason in which they added ace arm Framber Valdez to the rotation alongside some other notable acquisitions, it seems they’re ready to run it back once again in search of their first World Series appearance since 2012. The first two games of the 2026 have provided some encouragement as the team looks to snag some early momentum, securing a pair of wins on the road heading into the series finale this evening. Detroit tallied 12 hits in the first game and managed to score five runs on six hits in the second outing, drawing eight walks in an impressive display of plate discipline. With 18 hits and 13 runs in total, the Tigers are second in each stat thus far with a .702 OPS.

The Padres had an impressive 2025 with a 90-72 record that narrowly missed out on taking an NL West title over the eventual World Series champs. They fell in the Wild Card though and didn’t exactly have a great offseason after losing Dylan Cease and some other key names who played key roles over the last couple of years. The hope is that a re-tooled lineup can help them compete in a pretty loaded division, but it’s tough to tell how that’ll play out. It’s all-too early to make any kind of conclusion, but the first two games have been pretty ugly and are far from what you want to see. San Diego has a respectable 13 hits but only four runs and a .250 OBP, striking out an uncharacteristic 19 times with only five walks drawn as well. The plate approach was a major strength last season, so monitoring this trend will prove interesting over the coming weeks.

Right-hander Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the Tigers tonight after recording a 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP last season, striking out 188 batters in 161 innings. That K% was good for 27.6% and an 82nd-percentile grade, and his xERA was a respectable 3.99 as he underperformed thanks to poor barrel and hard-hit rates. Perhaps 2026 will be more kind to him, though his Spring Training was uninspiring at best with four homers allowed in 12.2 innings.

For the Padres, fellow righty Randy Vasquez gets the starting nod. He put forth an okay 2025 in terms of rate stats with a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but his underlying metrics were pretty rough. He struck out only 78 hitters in 133.2 innings, good for a second-percentile K% of just 13.7%. Beyond that, he actually far outperformed a 5.37 xERA and .267 xBA. There’s some reason for concern in his profile.

Tigers vs. Padres pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds indicate a complete toss-up tonight. Both the Padres and Tigers hold -110 odds on the Moneyline, though Detroit is favored on the run line of -1.5. The combined run total sits at an even eight for this contest.

Best Bet: DET Tigers over 3.5 runs (-145)

Many of Vasquez’s underlying metrics were really bad last season, and his Spring Training saw him give up 10 earned runs with three homers allowed in 18.1 innings. Detroit seems to have already found its groove, and the homers will come eventually as well. The Tigers should bat Vasquez around tonight, and it’s not like he strikes out many of batters either. Expect plenty of contact.

Strong Lean: Jack Flaherty over 5.5 strikeouts (-113)

Unlike Vasquez, Flaherty is a good punchout pitcher. Even in a down year, his chase and whiff rates were both above the league average last season, and we’ve already talked about the strikeout rate (which was even better in 2024 with a 91st-percentile grade). I think he’ll look more like his old self with time and could take advantage of this sluggish Padres start, especially with something of an outlier curve that generates a lot of movement.