Charlie Cummings previews Sunday’s MLB matchup between the Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles and provides his best pick.

Nothing hits harder than a Sunday rubber match in MLB. The Twins and Orioles split the first two games of their series, and will now decide who takes the first series of the year.

First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles are -149 moneyline favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Twins upset is priced at +123. The game total is set at O/U nine runs. Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Twins-Orioles game.

Twins vs. Orioles Preview

First, let’s break down the pitching matchup.

Shane Baz steps to the mound to make his Baltimore Orioles debut. He spent five years with the Rays building up his arm as he fought injuries, culminating in 31 starts last season, where he tossed 166.1 innings. Don’t let his 4.87 ERA deceive you; Baz was on the receiving end of some bad luck, posting a 3.88 expected ERA, according to Baseball Savant. Armed with a great fastball and a bendy curveball, he’s a strikeout-groundball pitcher with No. 2 starter upside. It’s no wonder the Baltimore brain trust was comfortable handing Baz a five-year, $68 million extension, which is the largest pitcher contract in Orioles history.

On the mound for the Twins will be Bailey Ober, starting his sixth season in the Twin Cities. After an exceptional 2024 season, where Ober posted a 3.25 expected ERA over 178.2 innings with 191 strikeouts, he crashed in 2025. Ober was knocked around for a 5.10 ERA with a 4.36 xERA over 146.1 innings, striking out only 120 batters. A noticeable dip in his fastball velocity (which already was an issue) certainly contributed to his struggles. Minnesota is hoping for a bounce-back from the 30-year-old. With the team firmly in rebuild mode, a strong start to the season could make him an attractive trade-deadline chip.

The gap in these lineups is evident. Last year, these two weren’t all that different, but the Orioles took major steps to address their lineup by adding thumping first baseman Pete Alonso to the fold. Taylor Ward was another pickup to boost the lineup in left field. The hope is that those veterans will fit in well alongside Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman in the top of the order, shielding a bottom of the order full of youngsters. If that top four can produce, players like Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, and Colton Cowser can capitalize on their prospect pedigree.

Minnesota’s lineup is lacking in upside. Byron Buxton will provide plenty of power and speed at the top, but beyond that, nobody else is a guarantee. Luke Keaschall and Matt Wallner can bring some power, and Royce Lewis has carried lineups when hot and healthy. But this is likely to be a bottom 5-10 lineup in all of baseball, barring massive unforeseen breakout seasons.

The bullpen battle is an interesting one. Minnesota isn’t deep on big names, but it managed 4.2 scoreless innings on Saturday to secure the win, allowing only five baserunners and striking out seven Orioles. Baltimore spent big on Ryan Helsley to steady the back of its bullpen, which has been a weakness recently. We’ll see if that can steady things, or if manager Craig Albernaz will have a hard time finding the right equation from the pen.

Now we know the teams. Who is going to pull out the win?

Twins vs. Orioles Pick, Best Bet

The spring training numbers from Ober are a massive red flag. He routinely averaged under 90 MPH on his fastball, raising concerns that his disastrous 2025 season may be the new norm. Baz certainly has a lot to prove, but he’s the superior pitcher facing an inferior lineup. I expect the Baltimore bats to wake up in a big way on Sunday to deliver a series win.

Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles Run Line -1.5 (+149)