The Mets are -180 favorites vs the Pirates

Pirates vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs

Pirates / Mets TV Channel: SNY | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-180) on March 29, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Flushing, Queens, NY.

This season, the Pirates are 0-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 2-0 ATS.

Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylinePirates+1.5 -150O 8 -120+150Mets -1.5 +125U 8 +100-180

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

Spencer Horwitz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+16.40 Units / 205% ROI)

Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.50 Units / 76% ROI)

Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)

Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 42% ROI)

Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+16.40 Units / 234% ROI)

Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.80 Units / 44% ROI)

Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)

Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.70 Units / 78% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+27.90 Units / 17% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 97 of their last 160 games (+27.05 Units / 14% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 77 of their last 124 games (+24.60 Units / 15% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 away games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+15.30 Units / 22% ROI)

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 93 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)

The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+8.10 Units / 8% ROI)

The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games at home (+5.94 Units / 7% ROI)

The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 79 games at home (+2.70 Units / 2% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 0-2 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -100% ROI).

0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI

1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI

1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 132.5% ROI).

2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 68.97% ROI

1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI

1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI

Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Pirates were just 27-54 (.333) on the road in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.

The Pirates are just 14-88 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.

The Pirates were just 7-43 (.140) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.

The Pirates were just 37-53 (.411) after a loss in the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Mets were just 0-70 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.

The Mets were 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 129-27 (.827) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.

The Mets are just 135-21 (.865) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters slugged just .333 on the road in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters slugged just .159 on pitches out of the zone in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .596 (1,843 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .622 (3,034 PA’s) on the road in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% against RHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Mets hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of 47% in the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.

Mets hitters had a groundball batting average of just .214 with runners on base in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Mets had an average Exit Velocity of 90.7 MPH in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Pirates won just 13% of the time in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates won just 26% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers in the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mets pitchers since the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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