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The Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners wrap up their opening series on Sunday Night Baseball, with each team starting a below-average pitcher.
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Slade Cecconi and Emerson Hancock both struggle to generate strikeouts and frequently allow loud contact.
My Guardians vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks break down why the total is on the right side on Sunday, March 29.
We’ve also got a collection of Sunday Night Baseball props from analyst J.D. Yonke.
Guardians vs Mariners predictionsGuardians vs Mariners best bet: Over 7.5 (-122)
This total does not account for what these two starters are.
Cleveland Guardians hurler Slade Cecconi posted a 4.99 xERA last season with a 49% hard-hit rate that was among the worst in the sport.
Meanwhile, Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock is trying to outperform his underwhelming metrics entering his third season. The righty posted a 4.90 ERA last season, paired with a 5.51 expected ERA. The season before followed a similar pattern, with a 4.75 ERA and a 5.92 expected ERA.
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The ball will be in play early and often, and the quality of contact should be high.
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COVERS INTEL:
Cecconi’s 12% barrel rate and 49% hard-hit rate both ranked in MLB’s bottom 10% among qualified 2025 starters.
Guardians vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
The -144 price point for Seattle is about right with my -146 projection.
I’m genuinely more confident in the Mariners’ bats to exploit a pitcher with a serious barrel rate and hard-hit problem. Cal Raleigh looms large, but others like Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley, and Randy Arozarena posted hard-hit rates above 40% last season.
Guardians vs Mariners SGP
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Guardians vs Mariners home run pick: Dominic Canzone (+430)
Canzone opened the year with two homers and has posted a Top-3 exit velocity among all Guardians and Mariners hitters in this series. He projects favorably against Cecconi’s fastball-slider combo, particularly the slider, which is a pitch the righty leans on heavily. Canzone posted the highest hard-hit rate among Seattle hitters against that pitch last season.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 0-1, -1.2 units
Guardians vs Mariners odds
Moneyline: Cleveland +122 | Seattle -144
Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-176) | Seattle -1.5 (+146)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-104)
Guardians vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 90 of their last 160 games (+17.65 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mariners.
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How to watch Guardians vs Mariners and game info
Location
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date
Sunday, March 29, 2026
First pitch
7:20 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock
Guardians starting pitcher
Slade Cecconi
(2025: 7-7, 4.30 ERA)
Mariners starting pitcher
Emerson Hancock
(2025: 4-5, 4.90 ERA)
Guardians vs Mariners latest injuriesGuardians vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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