Series in Review: Royals Avoid Sweep in Atlanta – Royals

Series Nutshell

 

Hopes were high for the Royals as they began the 2026 season in Atlanta, eager to improve upon their 82-80 record this offseason. While 2025 was just their second winning season since their 2015 World Series, offensive inconsistency cost them the postseason after they went to the ALDS in 2024. With some shrewd acquisitions this offseason and some faith being put in their young, established, and budding stars, the Royals were hoping to get off to a strong start in 2026 by taking the series against the Braves.

Unfortunately, it just wasn’t the series that the Royals hoped for.

They lost two out of three games in Atlanta, including the home opener, in which they were shut out. That said, they salvaged things with a victory on Sunday to avoid the sweep, and they found some life offensively on Sunday after only scoring two combined runs in games 1 and 2. 

There are some questions about the bullpen, especially in the wake of Carlos Estevez‘s disastrous outing in game two, which saw him blow a two-run lead in the ninth. However, those questions may have been answered in game three, and there’s more hope on the horizon, both on the pitching and hitting end, especially with a much easier (hopefully) opponent lined up for the Royals’ home opener at Kauffman Stadium. 

 

Record this Series: 1-2

Run Differential: -7 

Standing: 4th place in AL Central (1.0 GB)

Game 1: ATL 6, KC 0

The Royals are shut out and stymied by Chris Sale on Opening Day, as he holds them to three hits in six innings of work. Kansas City only gets five total hits, all singles. Cole Ragans struggles, giving up four runs on six hits in four innings of work. 

Game 2: ATL 6, KC 2

The Royals hold a 2-0 lead for eight innings, thanks to a strong performance by Michael Wacha and relievers Lucas Erceg and Matt Strahm. However, Kansas City blew the lead in the ninth, with Estevez giving up a game-winning grand slam to Dominic Smith. 

Game 3: KC 4, ATL 1

Kansas City secures its first victory of 2026. Seth Lugo pitches 6.1 innings of shutout ball, and Erceg shuts the door in the ninth on Atlanta for his first save of the season. Carter Jensen hit his first home run of the season, and Bobby Witt Jr. collected his first RBI with an opposite-field single. 

News and Notes

After his game two loss, Estevez had X-rays done after he got hit in the ankle by a Michael Harris II line drive. The X-rays turned out negative, but the Royals’ closer was wearing a walking boot on Sunday, as reported by MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers.

 

No word has been made if Estevez will land on the IL. However, it’s a situation to monitor, especially since his velocity still isn’t where it needs to be by his standards (more on that later).

Michael Massey, Stephen Kolek, and James McArthur were three players put on the IL before Kansas City’s Opening Day game on Friday. All are making progress back in Arizona, according to Rogers. 

 

McArthur, who missed all of last season due to injury, is progressing slowly, though that seemed to always be the plan for him this spring, according to Rogers. However, Rogers did point out that he’s pitching in Arizona (Minor League games) and could be due for a rehab stint sooner rather than later. McArthur saved 18 games for the Royals in 2025 in 56.2 IP. While he had a 4.92 ERA, his 4.17 FIP was much better, and he could thrive in lower-leverage situations in the bullpen. 

 

Highlights

After a Game 1 loss in which Ragans struggled on the mound, Kansas City got excellent starting pitching performances from veterans Wacha and Lugo. 

Though he had an uneven Spring Training (6.89 ERA in 15.2 IP), he stepped up and had an excellent performance, dominating an Atlanta lineup that teed off for four runs and three home runs against Ragans. In six innings of work, Wacha struck out seven and allowed no runs on three hits and only one walk. He also posted excellent whiff and chase rates against a pretty vaunted Braves team.

Wacha posted a 50% chase rate, a 38.6% whiff rate, and allowed a .245 xwOBACON on 80 pitches. His four-seamer and cutter were both up in velocity from 2025, and his changeup was producing 4.3 more inches of iVB than a season ago as well. His four-seamer and changeup were his best pitches whiff-wise, as evidenced by his 42.9% and 44.4% whiff rates, respectively. 

If Wacha continues to produce metrics and outings like this, he could be a mainstay in the No. 2 spot in the rotation, making the extension he signed last year even more of a bargain. 

As for Lugo, he is coming off a subpar 2025 after finishing second in the AL Cy Young race in 2024. He posted a 4.15 ERA in 145.1 IP, but his FIP was much higher at 5.05, and his 1.29 WHIP was 20 points higher than his mark in 2024. Even though he earned a contract extension from the Royals at the end of the 2025 season, there was concern that Lugo would continue trending downward in 2026.

So far, the 36-year-old seemed more like his 2024 self on Sunday against the Braves. In 6.1 IP, he allowed no runs, five hits, and didn’t walk a single batter. He also struck out three and maintained some strong chase and zone rates in his 2026 debut, illustrating a control and command that wasn’t as consistent this spring or a year ago.

Here’s a look at his TJ Stats summary from his winning effort against Atlanta.

Sunday was a vintage Lugo effort: a lot of different pitches (nine types thrown), a “raid the zone” approach (55.8% zone rate), and generating the kind of chase (35.3%) that led to ineffective contact. Though he did benefit from the weather conditions on Sunday, he didn’t let up in attacking Braves hitters all game long. That aggressiveness wasn’t always present in 2025, so it’s nice to see him get back to that approach, which made him so successful in his first season in Kansas City.

In addition to Lugo and Wacha, the Royals got solid contributions from many arms in the bullpen. 

Bailey Falter and Alex Lange looked solid in their Royals regular-season debuts. Falter gave up a couple of runs on five hits, but he struck out four, didn’t walk any, and generated a good amount of whiff and weak contact in three innings of work. The TJ Stuff+ profiled well at 102 on Friday, a sign that he may be a nice fit in the long relief role.

In addition to Falter and Lange (who had a scoreless inning of work in game 1), Matt Strahm and Lucas Erceg locked things down in the late innings. Both produced scoreless outings not just on Saturday, but on Sunday as well in the Royals’ lone win, with Erceg notching the save. 

Manager Matt Quatraro mentioned before Sunday’s game that they may give Estevez more time to ramp up his velocity, which may mean pitching in lower-leverage situations. If that’s the case, then Strahm and Erceg may be splitting duties in high-leverage situations in the ninth for the time being.

 

The offense didn’t really stand out much, even in their victory on Sunday. The Royals’ offense was primarily led by Salvador Perez on Saturday, as he launched his first home run of the year against Reynaldo Lopez, who was dealing for six innings prior to Salvy’s bomb, the Royals’ first run of 2026 (after 15 innings, unfortunately). 

 

 

In addition to Salvy’s home run, Jac Caglianone had a solid day at the plate in his 2026 debut (he did not play on Friday due to the matchup against the lefty Sale). He went 2-for-3 with a double, a nice start considering his issues at the plate a year ago.

On Sunday, the main star was Carter Jensen, the Royals’ top prospect. In his first start behind the plate, not only did he help Lugo have a stellar outing, but he also went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and had an RBI sacrifice fly. His home run was not an easy one, especially considering the windy conditions of Truist Park on Sunday.

 

 

Jensen is only hitting .125 with four strikeouts in 10 plate appearances this season. That said, he’s shown good power with a .500 slugging and .700 OPS. Jensen has been known to start slow and turn it up once he adjusts to the pitching at a particular level. While the average isn’t high now, he seems to be looking comfortable and not overwhelmed at the plate, even against a good pitching staff like Atlanta’s. 

Lowlights

The main “concerning” story from this series is Estevez, whose velocity issues this spring continued into his first outing of 2026. 

It was a complete disaster for Estevez, who only recorded a single out on 27 pitches. In that outing, he allowed six runs on four hits and two walks. The cherry on top of his putrid outing was allowing a grand slam on a 3-2 count that Smith absolutely mashed.

 

The stuff was just not good for Estevez in his 2026 debut. He averaged only 91.2 MPH on the four-seamer, and his overall TJ Stuff+ was 96. Furthermore, not only were his chase, whiff, and xwOBACON marks poor, but his zone rate was as well, leading to his two walks.

It’s likely that without his usual velocity, Estevez was trying to be too fine with his control, which led to him missing more spots than usual. He only generated an 11.8% chase and 11.1% whiff, so it was obvious that Braves hitters were locked on him on Saturday. That was further confirmed by his .599 xwOBACON allowed, with his four-seamer and changeup allowing xwOBACON marks of .720 and .836, respectively.

Estevez was in a walking boot on Sunday, which makes one wonder if he will be seeing some time on the IL when they return to Kansas City. However, Quatraro didn’t comment on Estevez’s outlook, though he did mention to Rogers before Sunday’s game that they would pursue other closing options even if Estevez was available.

 

Thankfully, the Royals have enough bullpen depth to absorb Estevez’s removal from the ninth for the time being. They also have a few good options in Omaha, with Luinder Avila, Steven Cruz, Eli Morgan, and Mason Black all being possible options to replace Estevez if the Dominican closer lands on the IL.

Speaking of pitching concerns, Ragans had a forgettable performance on Opening Day against Atlanta. It was the kind of outing that was far too typical for him in 2025, which explains his 4.97 ERA. He generated a lot of strikeouts and whiffs, but he struggled with command and gave up way too many barrels. His lackluster zone rate and high xwOBACON overshadowed his strong TJ Stuff+ and whiff rate.

I talked about Ragans more thoroughly in a recent post on Royals Keep written after his outing on Friday. It’s too early to panic with Ragans, and he has shown some command issues and pitch inefficiency in previous Opening Day starts. However, his zone rate and xwOABCON trends will be important to follow in his next starts. 

A disappointing development in the Atlanta series was the struggles of the lineup, especially with hitters expected to be key secondary performers at the bottom of the order in 2026.

Jonathan India is 0-for-8 with three strikeouts. Isaac Collins is 0-for-7 with two strikeouts and a caught stealing. Starling Marte went 0-for-3 on Opening Day with a strikeout. Lane Thomas is 1-for-9 with four strikeouts. The Royals were hoping that at least 1 or 2 of these hitters would have an impact on the Kansas City lineup and raise the floor of this group. After three games, the early results have been good with this group. 

Thankfully, Quatraro has been quick to adjust the lineup this year. Collins, Marte, and India were not in Sunday’s lineup. It wouldn’t be surprising that Thomas isn’t in Monday’s lineup after his 0-for-4 performance in the series finale. 

Looking Ahead

In their Opening home series, the Royals play a Twins team that is 1-2, but has scored 11 runs and has a run differential of zero. Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Trevor Larnach have gotten off to good starts this year, with Lewis hitting his first home run of the season on Sunday in their 8-6 loss to the Orioles. Also, Tristan Gray played at shortstop instead of Brooks Lee on Sunday, and the move paid off. Gray went 2-for-4 with three RBI.

 

 

The pitching seems to be a source of inconsistency. They held the Orioles to two runs in game 1 and one run in game 2, thanks to strong performances from starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley. However, Bailey Ober and the Twins bullpen struggled on Sunday, giving up eight runs in the series finale.

The Twins’ 3.96 staff ERA is better than the Royals’ 4.62. However, six of those 13 total Royals runs were tagged to Estevez in his meltdown in the ninth inning on Saturday (his ERA is 162.00, which doesn’t feel real). Take that Estevez outing away, and this Royals pitching staff only has seven runs allowed.

Minnesota and Kansas City both know this series will be a big one, especially if they want to re-establish themselves after disappointing Opening weekend performances. The Royals will face Simeon Woods Richardson, who is susceptible to the long ball, as evidenced by his 1.37 HR/9 and 10.8% HR/FB rate. It would be nice for the Royals to get off to a hot start against Woods-Richardson on Monday, especially with the long ball at Kauffman with the new dimensions. 

A strong performance on Opening Day could make things easier for the Royals in this series, especially with Ryan and Bradley slated to go in games 2 and 3, according to Roster Resource.