The Colorado Rockies completed their first series of the 2026 campaign, and ultimately went 0-3 against the Miami Marlins and were outscored 10-7. Starting the season with a sweep is never good, especially starting against a team on a similar tier before heading into a gauntlet for the next six weeks. It’s also not good considering the historically bad 2025 season this team is trying to forget, and how they’ll need to keep their heads if they hope to not repeat it.
For comparison, the Rockies went 1-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays to start their 2025 campaign. They were outscored 10-8. They struck out 31 times and walked three times. They trotted out three starters — Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Ryan Feltner — and they averaged about five innings per start. Freeland went six on Opening Day, Senzatela went 4.1, and Feltner went five. They also used 11 relievers total over three games (including the two appearances each by Luis Peralta, Tyler Kinley and Angel Chivilli).
Flash forward to 2026, and here are some overreactions from the first weekend based on what we learned last year.
“Warren Schaeffer is over-managing!”
One of the notes that has come up in the game threads is that manager Warren Schaeffer, in his first full year at the helm, has been over-managing so far in three games.
Specifically, it was called out in Sunday’s game when he decided to pinch hit Braxton Fulford for TJ Rumfield, and then double switched — leaving Fulford in to catch in lieu of Brett Sullivan, while also shifting Willi Castro to first (his first appearance in the big leagues at that position) and adding in Ryan Ritter at second. The very next inning, Ritter was lifted, Castro was shifted back and Troy Johnston was added in at first instead. It was an interesting string of decisions, for sure, but one has to think there was some sort of data they were relying on in the dugout that said Fulford, as a right-handed hitter, matched up better against the Marlins’ left-handed relievers. Additionally, Castro made a bad play at first, so they perhaps made the decision to move him back to second for that reason.
In Saturday’s game, Ritter was inserted as a pinch runner for Johnston in the seventh and Castro was shifted to left field to replace him, but that was the only substitution Schaeffer made. And late in the game on Friday, Fulford served as a pinch hitter to replace DH Eduoard Julien, Ritter pinch hit for Jake McCarthy (Castro shifted to the outfield again), and Sullivan entered as a pinch runner in place of Rumfield.
So far, this perhaps does has inklings of over-managing. However, it is still early in the season. Hopefully things will settle down. (For reference: Bud Black made five substitutions in the first three games of 2025.)
I was more concerned by Fulford not using an ABS challenge on Augustín Ramírez, which led to a walk instead of a strikeout after an 0-2 count, and then Schaeffer not challenging Connor Norby’s “hit by a pitch” (or rather, the knob of the bat getting hit).
Hopefully those are leaning moments.
“The team still has a strikeout problem!”
Last year, the Rockies struck out 12 times in their first game against the Tampa Bay Rays. As I mentioned earlier, they struck out a total of 31 times in three games to start off 2025. So far in 2026, they’ve struck out 30 times — nine times on Friday, 10 on Saturday and 11 on Sunday. On the surface, it looks like “same old Rockies.” However, a deeper look reveals some interesting trends:
In 2025, the Rockies only recorded three looking strikeouts in their first three games. In 2026, they have six. In 2025, the last looking strikeout they recorded in their first three games was by Ezequiel Tovar in the fifth inning of Game 1. After that, they recorded 25 straight swinging strikeouts. In Games 2 and 3, they did not record a single looking strikeout.In 2025, they had 11 strikeouts that piggybacked off the strikeout before them (even across innings), and their longest streak was four in a row. In 2026, they have seven piggybacked strikeouts and their longest streak is three at-bats in a row. Additionally, they have only recorded four swinging strikeouts in a row.The side has not been struck out once (Kris Bryant, Michael Toglia and Hunter Goodman all struck out in the second inning of Game 2 last year after Ryan McMahon struck out to end the first).In 2025, the Rockies struck out on three pitches five times in their first three games. In 2026, that instance has happened nine times. In 2025, the average number of pitches per strikeout was 5.03; in 2026, the average is 4.53 pitches.Two strikeouts in 2026 have been aided by ABS, but neither instance resulted in the strikeout — Strike 2 of the final one in Game 1 (Tovar) was overturned, and Strike 1 of the fourth in Game 2 (Karros) was also overturned.
Granted, comparing the 2025 Rockies with the 2026 Rockies is an inexact science giving the coaching and personnel changes. But consider this: Overall, the Rockies are seeing fewer pitches per strikeout, which is a concerning. However, they aren’t stringing strikeouts together as much as they were in 2025. They also doubled their look rate, and haven’t had a game that only includes swinging strikeouts, which suggests more patience at the plate. This may indicate that they aren’t pressing as much and aren’t letting the previous at-bat dictate what happens next. Strikeouts aren’t as contagious (so far).
Additionally: The team recorded three walks in their first three games on 2025, all in the first game. So far in 2026, the Rockies have recorded five walks — two in the first game, one in the second, and two in the third. They have recorded two four-pitch walks and are averaging 5.4 pitches per walk. In 2025, they averaged six pitches per walk.
“The bullpen is poised to be overworked by May!”
In 2025, the Rockies’ first three starters — Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Feltner — averaged out to throw about five innings in their first three games. In Freeland’s game, three relievers combined for the final two innings; in Senzatela’s, five relievers combined for 4.2; and in Feltner’s game, three relievers combined for three innings. Additionally, in Feltner’s game, Peralta and Kinley each recorded just one out before Jake Bird came in for the final 2.1 innings. In 2026, each of Schaeffer’s three starters has lasted just 4.1 innings per start. However, all three of them also pitched in the WBC, which limited their time to stretch out (hence, Senzatela’s current home in the bullpen).
In 2026, Schaeffer has run out nine relievers and two have been used twice (Jimmy Herget and Brennan Bernardino). Most have pitched at least one inning, but Bernardino was brought in for one out on Friday and two outs on Saturday. Herget got two outs on Sunday after José Quintana was pulled, but then Senzatela pitched 2.2 innings. In 2025, relievers averaged about 16.72 pitches per game; in 2026, they are averaging about 19. However, a lot of that is just due to sheer volume (11 relief spots vs. 9).
On Saturday, it probably didn’t fully make sense to bring in Bernardino, given that he’s the only lefty in the bullpen. But he only threw two pitches on Friday, so I’m not completely mad about it. Additionally, perhaps Schaeffer could’ve pulled Senzatela earlier on Sunday, but he was pitching well, so again, I’m not completely mad about it.
Overall, the Rockies seem to be more competitive in these first three games, even if they lost all three to a “less scary” opponent. These were one-run games that could have gone either way. Last year, they played the Rays close but then got bludgeoned by the Phillies before returning home to play the Athletics.
They play the Toronto Blue Jays next, who are the reigning AL Champions. It will be a hard test, but if they can keep things close and competitive, the wins will come.
The Rockies won’t go 0-162 in 2026, and they will not get better overnight. I’ve said before that they are like students who have always gotten F’s who are now trying to get C’s, and that’s a lot harder to do than go from B’s to A’s.
This is super small sample size territory, but the early results are encouraging.
‘Doing what I do, which is damage’: Rumfield hits first career HR | MLB.com
TJ Rumfield has taken the Rockies by storm in these first few games. On Friday, he recorded his MLB debut and first hit; on Saturday, he recorded his first MLB home run. Thomas Harding asked him about the moments after the game.
Patrick Saunders writes an excellent profile on Walker Monfort, who has been leading the charge on the Rockies’ makeover. He spoke with his father, Dick, as well as PBO Paul DePodesta, manager Warren Schaeffer and director of research and development Brian Jones about his role within the organization — both historically and currently — as well as his vision for the future.
Fewer adsCreate community postsComment on articles, community postsRec comments, community postsNew, improved notifications system!
Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!