Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for James Wood, Addison Barger and Nick Kurtz.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate: James Wood, Addison Barger and Nick Kurtz.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
It doesn’t truly feel like baseball season is back until we’re placing home runs props against Taijuan Walker. The Phillies’ RHP has been among the most long ball prone pitchers in MLB the past two years, surrendering an eye-popping 1.95 opponent home runs per nine since the beginning of 2024 — the most of any pitcher with 200 innings thrown in that span. The 33-year-old has simply lost his stuff over the past half-decade. Walker’s fastball velocity is way down, and seventh percentile marks in whiff rate (18.5%) and strikeout rate (16.0%) in 2025 are not overly appealing. He gets hit hard and he gets hit often. All of this should be music to the ears of James Wood, whose biggest flaw is his ability to make consistent contact. That said, Wood possessed a 98th percentile expected wOBA on batted ball events last season (.502). This is the exact type of matchup where he should thrive. One where it’ll be near impossible to swing and miss.
Addison Barger 1+ Home Run (+344)
This is a day where you’re really trying to exploit the Blue Jays’ left-handed bats against Tomoyuki Sugano. It could be Daulton Varsho (+355). It could be Andres Gimenez (+720). Heck, I would give strong consideration to Jesus Sanchez, if he ever gets odds posted on the DraftKings Sportsbook. However, my No. 1 home run choice on Toronto’s roster for tonight’s action is Addison Barger. The 26-year-old was held without a hit in the Jays’ opening weekend sweep of the Athletics, but let’s focus on the larger sample sizes from last season. Namely, 93rd percentile bat speed (75.9) and a 91st percentile hard hit rate (51.0%). Barger had pretty standard splits for a lefty in 2025, hitting 20 of his 21 home runs against right-handed pitching with a .231 ISO. One of those 20 came versus Sugano, who was pitching for the Orioles at the time. For his rookie campaign in North American as a whole, Sugano gave up a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. Woof.
Much like the aforementioned Barger, Kurtz had a quiet weekend north of the border. However, this remains a man who slashed .336/.439/.714 with a .378 ISO in his 336 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in his rookie season. Are there some strikeout concerns? Yes. Did he hit for as much power outside of his Triple-A home park in Sacramento? No. But we’re going to overlook those red flags in a matchup with Bryce Elder — who has enough red flags of his own to fully stock an airport. Injuries are the lone reason that Elder is still in Atlanta’s rotation, as the 26-year-old has struggled to a 5.59 ERA across his 38 starts since the beginning of 2024. Elder was also destroyed every time he took the mound at Truist Park in 2025, with opponents managing a .306 average and 1.40 home runs per nine. The RHP heavy sinker usage has equated to an above-average ground ball rate throughout his career, yet Elder doesn’t generate whiffs and he’s prone to mistakes. I think Kurtz gets his first of the year tonight in this prime spot.