Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The ball carries differently at Great American Ballpark, even this early; the gaps feel shorter, and mistakes certainly turn into runs. The Cincinnati Reds come home off a series win over Boston, the Pittsburgh Pirates limp in from a volatile set in New York. With Braxton Ashcraft and Chase Burns taking the ball in mid-70s air with double-digit wind pushing through the park, this sets up less like a controlled pitching duel and more like a question of how quickly the game tilts once contact starts to lift. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Cincinnati in 2025 ran a .250/.320/.403 line with a .723 OPS in that split, clearly ahead of Pittsburgh’s .235/.308/.354 and .662 OPS. That gap shows up in raw production as well: the Reds scored 677 runs on a .706 OPS profile, while the Pirates managed 583 runs with a .655 OPS. Early 2026 has only added texture to that edge. Cincinnati is already generating early-inning pressure, with nine runs through the first five innings across its first three games, and multiple middle-of-the-order bats arriving in form. Pittsburgh has flashed isolated power, but its offensive shape still leans on bursts rather than sustained traffic, which is harder to trust in a park that rewards continuous pressure.

The player layer sharpens that contrast. Eugenio Suárez remains the cleanest power engine in this game, coming off a 36-homer season against right-handed pitching with a .552 slugging percentage and already flashing early-season impact. Elly De La Cruz adds another dimension—power that arrives with speed, turning extra-base contact into immediate run expectancy—and Sal Stewart has opened the year scorching, sitting on a .700 average through the first series. Pittsburgh has real counterpunches—Oneil Cruz carries a .438 slugging profile vs righties, and Ryan O’Hearn posted a .281 average with 14 homers in 2025—but the Pirates’ threats are more isolated, less continuous. In this park, sequencing matters, and Cincinnati has more ways to keep innings alive.

Pirates vs. Reds pick, best bet

Ashcraft’s 2025 contact profile is exactly what survives in this environment: 88.0 mph average exit velocity allowed, a 38.5% hard-hit rate, a 4.6% barrel rate, and a 50.8% ground-ball rate that keeps the ball out of the air. Burns, by contrast, brings the bigger strikeout ceiling—a 35.6% strikeout rate and a 3.48 xERA—but also a much louder contact profile, with a 90.2 mph average exit velocity, a 45.7% hard-hit rate, and a 9.5% barrel rate. That is the fulcrum of the game. Ashcraft can suppress damage if he keeps the ball on the ground, but Burns is the kind of arm that can dominate for stretches and still give up two swings that change everything. In a neutral park, that risk is manageable. Here, it is amplified.

The spot layer reinforces that tension rather than resolving it. Both bullpens come in without a clear freshness edge—each club has already played extra-inning games and leaned on late-inning arms—while the weather adds lift instead of resistance. Temperatures in the mid-70s with wind pushing through the park are not extreme, but they are enough to turn borderline contact into carry. That matters more for a pitcher like Burns, whose contact profile already trends toward the loud side, and it raises the baseline scoring expectation for both lineups rather than just one.

Cincinnati has the better offensive baseline and the hotter current form, but Ashcraft’s contact suppression makes a full-game lean fragile, and Burns’ volatility cuts against laying a price. What holds through every layer is the environment plus the contact profiles: a homer-friendly park, warm air, wind assistance, one starter prone to barrels, and another who can suppress damage but not eliminate it against a deeper lineup.

Best bet: Over 8 (-105). The way it dies is if Ashcraft fully controls contact and Burns leans entirely on strikeouts to erase traffic, but all signs point to this game finding runs once the first clean innings give way to lifted contact.

Projected score: Reds 6, Pirates 4.

Best bet: Reds vs. Pirates o8.0 total runs (-105)

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