Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the Athletics.

Truist Park in late March does not need heat to create offense—it just needs contact that carries. The ball comes off the bat a little firmer here, the gaps play honest, and a lineup like Atlanta’s does not need ideal conditions to start stacking pressure. This is a Braves team that opened 2-1 with a +7 run differential, while Oakland arrives 0-3 and already chasing game states. With Jacob Lopez and Bryce Elder on the mound—two pitchers who win in very different ways—the game asks offense can consistently get the ball airborne with intent. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the Athletics.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

IThrough three games, the Braves are hitting .276/.330/.459 (.789 OPS), but the underlying contact says more than the slash. Their team xwOBA across the opening series sat at .319, .281, and .404, with a peak 17.9% barrel rate and multiple balls struck over 109 mph. That is not one hot inning inflating the numbers—it is repeated stretches of quality contact. The distribution matters just as much. Drake Baldwin has opened at 1.203 OPS with two home runs, Ozzie Albies at 1.053, Michael Harris II at 1.000, Mike Yastrzemski at 1.125, and Austin Riley already carrying a .364 average through the first set. Even with Ronald Acuña Jr. sitting at a .237 OPS and Matt Olson at .583, Atlanta is still producing runs because the lineup is not top-heavy—it is functioning one-through-seven with real on-base and damage overlap.

That overlap is exactly what stresses Lopez. His 2025 baseline looks respectable on the surface—.297 xwOBA allowed, 86.9 mph average exit velocity, 33.2% hard-hit rate, 6.6% barrel rate—but the shape underneath is where this matchup turns. Hitters produced a 39.0% sweet-spot rate against him, along with a .362 xwOBA on contact and a .310 expected batting average on contact. That is a profile that survives soft contact but gives up real damage when hitters get the ball in the air with intent. Atlanta is built to do exactly that. Riley and Olson live in lift-and-pull contact; Albies and Harris create gap pressure; Baldwin and Yastrzemski are already elevating with authority. Lopez’s mix—35% four-seam, 30% slider, 14% cutter, 13% changeup—requires precision, not power. Against a lineup producing early-count barrels and sustaining contact quality across multiple bats, that margin shrinks fast.

A’s vs. Braves pick, best bet

Elder’s 2025 profile carries real risk—43.8% hard-hit rate allowed, 90.0 mph average exit velocity, .335 xwOBA allowed—and his sinker specifically was hit to a .477 slugging with a 49.2% hard-hit rate. If that pitch leaks, damage follows. But the Athletics have not shown the lineup depth to consistently exploit that. Through three games, they are hitting .157/.218/.294 (.512 OPS), with team xwOBA marks of .284, .263, and .188 and average exit velocities hovering around 80 mph. Shea Langeliers is carrying a 1.788 OPS with three home runs and a 37.5% barrel rate, but behind him the support is thin—Brent Rooker 1-for-13, Jacob Wilson .154/.154/.231, Nick Kurtz hitting .111 with seven strikeouts in 13 plate appearances. That is not a lineup applying sustained pressure; it is one relying on isolated bursts.

Atlanta is stacking events—walks, barrels, doubles, second-chance contact—while Oakland is searching for one swing at a time. Even if Elder allows contact, the A’s need sequencing to score; the Braves create scoring through volume. And once Lopez exits, that gap widens. Oakland’s bullpen opened the year with command issues and late-game instability, while Atlanta’s offense is built to extend innings against middle relief, not just win the first matchup.

I love the Braves team total over 4.5 runs (-105), playable to -120. The way it dies is Lopez threading five innings of soft contact while Atlanta strands early traffic, but all signs still point to a lineup generating barrels, lift, and sustained contact quality across multiple bats against a pitcher whose profile breaks when hitters find the air. Atlanta does not need a perfect game script here—it just needs its normal one.

Predicted score: Braves 6, Athletics 3.

Best bet: Braves TT o4.5 runs (-105)

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