Derek CartyMar 31, 2026, 08:28 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Tuesday’s top batter prop bets
Kyle Schwarber | UNDER 0.5 H (+167)
Projection: 47% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.69 EV
One reason to bet this: My system shows Schwarber with a .227 expected batting average since the start of 2025, which grades out in only the 22nd percentile.
Heliot Ramos | OVER 0.5 RBI (+204)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.01 EV
One reason to bet this: Ramos is projected to hit third in the Giants lineup today, which represents an upgrade in opportunity from where he hit in the first series of the season.
James Wood | OVER 1.5 TB (+156)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s ninth-shallowest LF fences today.
Tuesday’s top pitcher prop bets
Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 5.5 K (+102)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.52 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system expects Woodruff to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, reaching a maximum of 77 pitches.
Max Fried | UNDER 5.5 K (+119)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.03 EV
One reason to bet this: Alfonso Marquez, who is anticipated to be behind the plate in this game, is considered to be a huge hitter’s umpire.
Logan Webb | UNDER 2.5 ER (-159)
Projection: 76% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Petco Park profiles as the No. 25 stadium in MLB for batting average.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
OPP.
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Jacob deGrom
@ BAL
-136
55.6
-3.10
-1.0
-103
-1.67
8.5
O -103
9.93
11.28
Zach Eflin
vs. TEX
+113
44.4
-5.94
+1.0
-126
-10.12
U -117
-19.25
Erick Fedde
@ MIA
+123
45.0
0.64
+1.0
-122
0.43
8.5
O -115
8.51
-16.43
Janson Junk
vs. CWS
-149
55.0
-8.30
-1.0
-106
-12.92
U -105
7.97
Bubba Chandler
@ CIN
-115
50.9
-4.69
-1.0
+108
-7.13
9.0
O -107
9.72
-4.43
Brandon Williamson
vs. PIT
-105
49.1
-4.29
+1.0
-141
-5.39
U -112
-4.22
PJ Poulin
@ PHI
+153
38.2
-5.18
+1.0
+105
-6.97
9.0
O -108
9.39
-10.10
Andrew Painter
vs. WSH
-186
61.9
-3.87
-1.0
-137
-5.51
U -112
0.93
Ryan Feltner
@ TOR
+224
35.0
10.97
+2.0
-123
4.23
8.5
O -105
8.99
-4.67
Max Scherzer
vs. COL
-280
65.0
-10.77
-2.0
-105
-17.00
U -115
-4.33
Aaron Civale
@ ATL
+129
41.3
-6.66
+1.0
-117
-8.82
9.0
O -120
9.56
-11.76
Jose Suarez
vs. ATH
-156
58.7
-2.79
-1.0
-111
-3.36
U +100
3.74
Jose Soriano
@ CHC
+119
46.2
2.65
+1.0
-128
4.90
7.0
O -112
6.52
-18.63
Jameson Taillon
vs. LAA
-143
53.8
-9.72
-1.0
-101
-18.19
U -108
9.80
Shane McClanahan
@ MIL
+119
52.0
15.48
+1.0
-133
12.42
7.5
O -108
7.80
-8.98
Brandon Woodruff
vs. TB
-143
48.0
-19.67
-1.0
+102
-27.62
U -112
-0.17
Kodai Senga
@ STL
-168
55.3
-10.92
-1.5
-102
-13.89
8.5
O -105
8.90
-6.44
Andre Pallante
vs. NYM
+139
44.7
5.54
+1.5
-118
4.42
U -115
-2.63
Brayan Bello
@ HOU
+129
49.6
14.50
+1.0
-122
10.98
7.5
O -115
8.11
-6.86
Hunter Brown
vs. BOS
-156
50.4
-17.95
-1.0
-106
-24.19
U -105
-2.03
Max Fried
@ SEA
-115
54.4
3.44
-1.0
+115
2.88
7.0
O -105
7.43
-0.88
Logan Gilbert
vs. NYY
-105
45.6
-12.79
+1.0
-150
-13.08
U -115
-7.96
Logan Webb
@ SD
-143
60.9
4.97
-1.0
-111
5.21
7.5
O -118
8.35
-4.14
German Marquez
vs. SF
+119
39.1
-16.28
+1.0
-116
-16.86
U -102
-4.72
Casey Mize
@ ARI
-110
55.9
7.83
-1.0
+116
7.57
9.0
O -112
8.65
-24.66
Brandon Pfaadt
vs. DET
-110
44.1
-16.92
+1.0
-151
-16.55
U -108
15.94
Tanner Bibee
@ LAD
+203
28.7
-16.77
+1.5
-108
-18.73
8.0
O -105
9.07
6.39
Shohei Ohtani
vs. CLE
-252
71.4
1.31
-1.5
-112
9.41
U -115
-14.92
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
Cleveland Guardians Run Line:
The Guardians have won this bet in nine of their last 10 road games. (+8.70 Units / 60% ROI). Current odds: +1.5 @ -108
San Diego Padres Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in eight of their last 10 home games. (+7.35 Units / 57% ROI). Current odds: +1 @ -116
Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
Tampa Bay has hit this over in 11 of their last 15 road games. (+6.85 Units / 39% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -110