Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today

The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox

Red Sox vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs

Red Sox / Astros TV Channel: NESN | SCHN

The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on March 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm in Houston, TX.

This season, the Red Sox are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 3-2 ATS.

Red Sox vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineRed Sox+1.5 -190O 7.5 -105+125Astros -1.5 +154U 7.5 -115-150

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)

Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Willson Contreras has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+7.40 Units / 123% ROI)

Brayan Bello has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 65% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Jose Altuve has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.20 Units / 136% ROI)

Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 100 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 73 away games (+10.55 Units / 11% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 155 games (+9.80 Units / 5% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 73 away games (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 92 of their last 159 games (+16.40 Units / 9% ROI)

The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.55 Units / 29% ROI)

The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)

The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 4 games (+4.15 Units / 91% ROI)

The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 1-3 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -48.75% ROI).

1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -54.46% ROI

2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 30.91% ROI).

3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -4% ROI

3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 12.28% ROI

2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -22.64% ROI

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Red Sox were 37-14 (.725) when they scored in the first inning in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .636.

The Red Sox were 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Astros were 41-8 (.837) when they hit 2 or more home runs in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Astros were 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros were 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Astros were 56-7 (.889) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

The Red Sox batted .280 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Red Sox batted .182 with two-strikes in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters had an OBP of .331 (3,034 PA’s) at home in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Red Sox batted .258 against LHP in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (858/6,089 PA’s) in the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

Astros hitters chased 21% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

The Astros batted .253 with two outs in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Astros hitters put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position in the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Red Sox pitchers in the 2025 season traveled 511.8 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB

Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 3.72 (1448.1 IP) in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Red Sox pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 42% of their games in the 2025 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Astros pitchers walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2024 season — best in MLB.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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