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The Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox continue their series at Daikin Park tonight.
Houston is sending ace Hunter Brown to the hill, and my Red Sox vs. Astros predictions expect him to mow down Boston’s lineup.
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Here are my best free MLB picks for this American League clash on Tuesday, March 31.
Red Sox vs Astros predictionsRed Sox vs Astros best bet: Astros -0.5 F5 (-114)
The Houston Astros clobbered the Boston Red Sox 8-1 yesterday, and they hold a significant pitching advantage tonight.
Boston is starting right-hander Brayan Bello, who ranked in the bottom 25th percentile last year in xERA (4.48) and xBA (.258) last year.
Meanwhile, Houston’s Hunter Brown finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2025, posting a 2.43 ERA with a .201 OBA.
Brown made his season debut last Thursday, striking out nine over 4 2/3 scoreless innings while walking four batters. Control wasn’t an issue for Brown last year, so expect him to settle in and mow down the Red Sox order.
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COVERS INTEL:
Although the Astros placed 15th in the majors in OPS (.714) last year, three-time All-Stars Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa missed a combined 225 games due to injuries. Houston’s lineup is currently at full strength.
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Red Sox vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Despite having an injury-plagued 2025, Yordan Alvarez slugged .587 over 396 games in his previous three seasons. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Bello and is 3-for-5 with a homer and a double against the Boston righty in his career.
Brown ranked eighth in the majors in strikeouts last year (204), and his velocity looks even better this time around. He averaged 95.7 mph on his devastating sinker last season but touched 98.4 mph on the pitch in Spring Training.
The Astros ace racked up nine strikeouts in just 4 2/3 innings in his season debut, and Boston struck out 12 times last night.
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Red Sox vs Astros SGP
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases
Hunter Brown Over 6.5 strikeouts
Red Sox vs Astros home run pick: Marcelo Mayer (+800)
There is fantastic value in backing Boston’s Marcelo Mayer to hit a home run. The 23-year-old flashed power in his brief MLB stint last year, and his peripherals are outstanding to start 2026.
While Mayer hasn’t hit a homer so far, the Red Sox infielder has two doubles, and his hard-hit rate (57.1%) and barrel rate (28.6%) are elite.
Brown is a stud, but the hard-throwing righty allowed 10 homers in 14 home starts last year, and Houston’s bullpen is vulnerable to the long ball.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 2-1, +0.56 units
HR picks: 2-1, +4.6 units
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Moneyline: Boston +130 | Houston -154
Run line: Boston +1.5 (-170) | Houston -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-114) | Under 7.5 (-106)
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Red Sox vs Astros trend
Houston has covered the F5 run line in their last four games (+4.15 units / 91% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
How to watch Red Sox vs Astros and game info
Location
Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
First pitch
8:10 p.m. ET
TV
NESN, SCHN
Red Sox starting pitcher
Brayan Bello
(2025: 11-9, 3.35 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher
Hunter Brown
(0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Red Sox vs Astros latest injuriesRed Sox vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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