The Pittsburgh Pirates (20-36) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (27-28) wrap up a 3-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is set for 3:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

After losing the Monday opener 5-0 as +171 underdogs, the Pirates stunned the Diamondbacks 9-6 as +230 underdogs in the second game of the series Tuesday. The Under (9) cashed Monday, while the Over (8.5) hit Tuesday. RF Bryan Reynolds (4-for-4, 3 RBIs) hit a go-ahead 3-run home run in the eighth inning, capping a 7-run frame for Pittsburgh.

According to ESPN Analytics, the Diamondbacks had a 98.6% win probability while leading 6-0 in the top of the fifth inning Tuesday — but they still couldn’t hang on. Arizona has dropped 6 of its last 7 games.

Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Zac Gallen

Skenes (3-5, 2.36 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 68 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 6-5 home victory in 10 innings over Milwaukee Brewers Friday2025 road stats: 2-2, 1.40 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 6 startsCareer vs. Diamondbacks: 1 home start (Aug. 4, 2024), no-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 6-5 setback

Gallen (3-6, 5.25 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 61 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 4-3 setback at St. Louis Cardinals Friday2025 home stats: 1-4, 6.03 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 7 starts2024 vs. Pirates: 1 home start (July 26), win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-3 victoryCareer vs. Pirates: 3-2, 3.34 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 5 starts

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Pirates at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Diamondbacks -135 (bet $135 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-210) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+170)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictionsPrediction

Pirates 3, Diamondbacks 2

PITTSBURGH (+115) has won 5 of its last 8 games and scored 5 or more runs in 4 of its last 6 — a notable turnaround after a 26-game stretch of scoring 4 or fewer. The offense appears to be gaining momentum, and Skenes has allowed just 1 run in each of his last 3 starts.

Arizona just can’t be trusted right now. It’s 1-6 in its last 7 games and has dropped each of Gallen’s last 3 starts.

BET PIRATES (+115).

Pirates +1.5 (-210) should cash, but the preferred play is to take Pittsburgh ML at plus money.

PASS on the run line.

Skenes has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 9 of his 11 starts this season. The Under has hit in 16 of Pittsburgh’s last 23 games (16-6-1, 72.7%). And while the offense has shown recent signs of life, the Pirates still rank last in MLB with just 3.09 runs per game on the season.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-102).

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