Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox.

Boston’s early split against right-handed pitching is cold—.216/.316/.373, a .689 OPS, 22 hits, 14 walks, and 36 strikeouts in its first four games against righties—but the 2025 stabilizer says there is more offense here than the first week has shown, as the Red Sox hit .253 with a .745 OPS against right-handed pitching last season. Houston’s current form is much louder, yet tonight’s collision point is Crochet. His 2025 baseline was ace-grade: 2.59 ERA, .266 xwOBA allowed, 32.2% hard-hit rate, and an 87.7 mph average exit velocity allowed, and his 2026 Statcast page still shows a suffocating quality-of-contact profile with a .189 wOBA allowed and .270 xwOBA early on. Burrows’ first 2026 start, by contrast, was unstable on the surface—5.2 innings, nine hits, five earned runs, two walks, six strikeouts, 7.94 ERA, 1.94 WHIP—and even if the expected-contact model was kinder than the scoreboard, Boston just needs traffic against a pitcher who has already leaked too much of it.

The player layer is where this finally starts to feel like a total Boston case instead of a vague Crochet sermon. Wilyer Abreu has been Boston’s one fully lit bat: .462 to open the season, two homers, five RBI, a 1.539 OPS, a .677 wOBA, a .483 xwOBA, and a 28.6% barrel rate. Roman Anthony has a team-high four hits already, which matters because the production has been uneven everywhere else and Boston needs table-setters. Trevor Story has already doubled in this series and remains one of the few current Red Sox hitters with a real history of damage against right-handed pitching. Jarren Duran’s early Statcast mix is lighter on impact than Boston would like—an 88.6 mph average exit velocity, 22.2% hard-hit rate, and no barrels yet—but he still brings speed and first-to-third pressure to a game where Burrows may have trouble controlling the shape of innings. Ceddanne Rafaela has opened with louder contact than the surface line suggests too, posting a 95.5 mph average exit velocity even while the overall offensive line stays thin. Marcelo Mayer already leads Boston in hits against right-handed pitching this season, another sign that the current version of this lineup may have more left-handed bite than the raw team line suggests.

Yordan Alvarez is already in one of those terrifying April moods: .381, three homers, six RBI, a 1.441 OPS, a 97.7 mph average exit velocity, and a 57.1% hard-hit rate; he’s reached base 14 times in his first 24 plate appearances and already had nine batted balls over 100 mph. Jose Altuve looks refreshed too with four hits and two homers in Monday’s 8–1 win over Boston, and leads Houston in several early offensive categories. Carlos Correa and Christian Walker have both been productive in this series, and Yainer Diaz helps keep the Astros from becoming a two-man act. This is a readymade offense here in the first month. But it is also an offense whose recent surge has depended on extended innings and sequencing, and Crochet is exactly the sort of left-handed power arm who can cut the wire on that whole arrangement by taking balls out of play.

Red Sox vs. Astros pick, best bet

Houston hit .252 with a .741 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2025, though. And, it’s true—Burrows is not as hopeless as his first line looks. His opener came with a much lower expected damage signal than the ERA suggests, and if he turns the game into soft contact for five innings while Houston cashes in one early Crochet mistake, then this becomes another Boston loss where the better starter pitch is not enough. That is the cleanest fear. Boston’s offense is still mostly projection at the moment, and Houston has been forcing opposing starters out by the fifth inning over and over again.

But the shape still points to Boston creating separation. Crochet’s 2025-to-2026 profile is the single strongest unit on the field. The Red Sox just need Abreu to stay hot, one of Anthony/Story/Duran/Mayer to lengthen an inning behind him, and Burrows to keep doing what he just did in his first start: allow too many baserunners for too long. Houston’s offense is hot enough to score, but Boston just has to reduce the Astros from avalanche to ordinary. That is the whole bet. Crochet gives them the runway to do it, and the plus price is enough to take the shot.

Red Sox -1.5 (+119). The way it dies is Houston turning one early Crochet mistake into a two-run inning and keeping the game inside one swing, but the stronger read is that Boston finally gets the cleaner starter, the softer opposing arm, and just enough offensive competence to get back in the win column before heading to Fenway.

Final score: Red Sox 5, Astros 3.

Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+120) at Astros

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