PHOENIX — Investing in a singular baseball game this early in the season can be maddening, for no other reason than it is difficult to assign proper value to anything that occurs.
It is not only fans who treat every loss as a competitive failure. The more emotional players and leaders in the sport can still rehash what went wrong, seething at every mistake or all the opportunities missed. The newer, analytical crowd can tend to observe with a more detached demeanor. Even the best teams can expect to lose at least 60 times in a season. One loss — or two, or three — is simply a tally in that column. You hope to construct a team good enough to finish with 20 or so more wins than losses when all is said and done.
Watching the Detroit Tigers fall in a sweep to the Arizona Diamondbacks brings this battle of perspectives into focus. Certainly, the Tigers should regret not leaving the desert with at least one victory. They had a win in their hands Tuesday night. They were up 5-0 early, then the offense wilted, then Will Vest and Kenley Jansen melted down, and a kid named Jose Fernandez hit the second of two home runs in his MLB debut to disrupt the postgame mood.
Wednesday’s 1-0 loss in the series finale was more troubling, not only because the Tigers did not draw a single walk or score a single run, but also because, in a way, it felt like more than just a singular game. Watching the quick, empty at-bats or the mindless chases was all too reminiscent of the Tigers’ struggles in the second half last season. A lineup featuring largely the same cast again played the type of game that contributed to the Tigers fumbling a massive division lead last year. Tarik Skubal was ruthless and efficient and surrendered only one run on a skillful home run swing from Corbin Carroll. Skubal’s team mounted no support, its best chance dashed when Gleyber Torres lined into a tough-luck double play with rookie phenom Kevin McGonigle on third.
“We’ve got to get in the strike zone,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said after the game. “It’s not just the balls you put in play and the at-bats as a whole. It’s continuing to fight to stay in the strike zone. We have a lot of swings and a little bit of decent contact but not our best contact on balls on the margins or out of the strike zone.”
When the Tigers paid up to sign Framber Valdez, they proved their decision to not touch their offense was not really about money or risk, but rather a more calculated bet that the existing core would improve through development and by adding internal help such as McGonigle. It remains entirely possible that a young cast of hitters can make strides and finish better than last year’s ranking of 11th in runs scored. It is also entirely fair to say problems with poor swing decisions, strikeouts and an inability to string together consistent, quality at-bats flow through the blood of too many of these Tigers hitters.
Detroit posted two big innings in its series against Arizona, scoring a combined 11 runs in those two frames. But otherwise, the Tigers are scoreless in 34 of their past 36 innings, dating to Saturday’s shutout loss in San Diego to the Padres. A streaky offense remains this team’s most perplexing issue. And for what it’s worth, the Tigers did not open their season in cold weather. A run of right-handed starters would ideally work in the favor of hitters like Kerry Carpenter (2-for-22) and Riley Greene (5-for-25).
But viewing Wednesday’s game — or even the series as a whole — through only the emotional lens could be dangerous. The Tigers, after all, started 2-4 a year ago, then went on to rattle off a tremendous first half. There are going to be nights where the bullpen blows it. There are going to be games where the offense does not score. The charitable view is that the Tigers simply got a few of these out of the way early. Maybe we should instead pay more attention to some of the small nuggets that could bode well for the marathon ahead: Casey Mize induced nine whiffs with his splitter, Colt Keith has improved his bat speed and is stinging the ball, and McGonigle looks fully capable of playing defense at third base and could be a difference-maker in the lineup.
Players such as Greene, Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson (3-for-20) will eventually get hot and start producing. The Tigers have only one home run through six games. Keith, though, was inches away from having two home runs in this series. Eventually, the Tigers should get a few more breaks in their favor.
“A lot of guys in this clubhouse have been through multiple, multiple seasons and they know how the flows of the season go,” Keith said. “I don’t think anybody in here is panicking. We’re all pretty confident that we’re going to turn it around and get back on track.”
But for each dose of level-headed, bigger-picture perspective, there’s another urge to be more reactionary. Every game counts. Had last season’s Tigers lost one more game in April, their September collapse would have cost them a playoff spot entirely.
That’s the whole issue with analyzing baseball early in the season. The samples are small. The emotional stakes are low. Drawing conclusions is a risky business. And yet, as Hinch likes to say and as last season’s Tigers put on T-shirts, everything matters.
“There’s a lot that goes into the last few games,” Hinch said. “Started out as a promising trip. Turned rough here. We get a day off tomorrow and head home.”