In January, as their search for an established big bat to boost their offense seemed stalled again, the Kansas City Royals suddenly gave manager Matt Quatraro a three-year contract extension. Clearly calculated to help sustain the franchise renaissance triggered in the fall of 2022 by the replacement of head baseball man Dayton Moore with J.J. Picollo, and then manager Mike Matheny with Matt Quatraro, the extension kicks in next season.

On its face, the deal gives Quatraro, whose 2023 Royals lost 106 games only to shockingly end the club’s pitiful 35-year absence from the playoffs in 2024, a big vote of confidence and some job security.

But as an old baseball saying goes, managers are hired to be fired, a fate that Ned Yost, despite leading Kansas City to two straight World Series and winning one, might have met after his Royals never again had a winning season and lost over 100 games in each of the last two years before he retired. And major league history is replete with examples of managers axed well before their multi-season contracts expired.

So, just how secure is Quatraro? Perhaps not as much as his extension suggests.

What Could Happen This Season to Threaten Matt Quatraro’s Royals Future?

Probably not much … with the emphasis on “probably”. At least in the short term, skippering the Royals to two consecutive winning seasons (2024 and 2025) after they hadn’t posted one since 2015 puts Quatraro on good ground. Only a monstrously catastrophic season, like the Chicago White Sox suffered by losing 121 times in 2024, could compel Picollo to fire the only manager he’s hired since taking the club’s reins from Moore.

And that’s not likely to happen. Barring the uncanny string of injuries that dealt the starting rotation such a collective blow last year, Kansas City’s starters appear set to give this club plenty of chances to win.

The bullpen might be a different matter. The major league season is so new, and the sample size consequently so small, that trying to draw any firm conclusions about the relief corps is folly. But Quatraro’s bullpen management has been an oft-criticized aspect of his in-game decision-making, and his recent ill-fated decision to summon Carlos Estévez to protect last Saturday night’s slim ninth-inning 2-0 lead against Atlanta further fueled that fire. Predictably bad after his disconcerting Cactus League performances, Estévez choked up the lead and a walk-off grand slam that handed the Braves a 6-2 win and Quatraro a blistering dose of criticism.

Not unless the Royals miss the playoffs by a half-game or a full game, though, will that gut-punch loss make a difference in the season. But an accumulation of additional questionable bullpen decisions in high-leverage, late-game situations won’t help Quatraro or his club. (Fortunately, he has Lucas Erceg and Matt Strahm to fall back on should Estévez not regain his major league-leading 42-save form of 2025).

Then there’s the offense, a sore spot the Royals can’t seem to solve. Yes, they battered Minnesota for 13 runs in Wednesday night’s Kauffman Stadium fog, but because the season is so young, there’s more than enough time for the bats to soften. It won’t be Quatraro’s fault if they do, but big league managers too frequently suffer from their players’ faults and flaws.

Finally, a return to mediocrity will spell trouble for Quatraro. No one blames him for his club’s franchise record-tying 106 losses in 2023 — after all, the Royals conceded even before the season began that it would be an “evaluation” year, and Quatraro had never managed in the big leagues before. But a trip to the playoffs, two straight winning seasons, and some important offseason acquisitions tend to irreversibly raise expectations.  

So, finishing well below .500 in 2026 — an unlikely event, to be sure — will move Quatraro toward shakier ground.

This season, then, could prove pivotal for Quatraro. Although the three-year contract extension he received this winter demonstrates the club’s confidence in its skipper, front office faith in big league managers can be stunningly fragile.

So fragile, in fact, that his contract extension notwithstanding, Quatraro’s seemingly secure seat in Kansas City’s dugout could heat up before this season ends.