Updated:
Apr 4, 2026 , 01:13 PM ET
• 4 min read
Last night, the Yankees beat up on a pitcher who gives up plenty of hard contact. The Marlins are trotting out another arm with a similar profile today… and we don’t see the outcome being any different.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates with left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins.
The New York Yankees and Miami Marlins get game two of a three-game set going tonight, with the situation looking very similar to yesterday.
Yesterday, the Bronx Bombers took advantage of a Marlins pitcher who struggles with giving up hard contact… and my Marlins vs. Yankees predictions today see things playing out similarly.
See why my MLB picks for Saturday, April 4, lean towards the Yankees winning (and runs being scored) in the Bronx.
Who will win Marlins vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (+115)
Many elements from yesterday’s matchup carry over today. Max Meyer’s average exit velocity last season was among the worst for qualified starters, which is a big problem when you’re headed to Yankee Stadium.
I think we will see the Yankees target this yet again, using the dimensional advantages of their home stadium to their benefit (looking towards those short porches down the lines), with Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger all starting the year strong — plus Aaron Judge showing signs of life with his first multi-hit game (and his third homer of the year) in the home opener yesterday.
After an 8-2 win in the series opener, the Yankees’ lineup has momentum and a clear matchup edge.
COVERS INTEL: Meyer’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity ranked in the bottom 5% all qualified MLB pitchers last year.
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Marlins vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+100)
I was perplexed when I projected this total at just 8.8 until I saw it — a brisk wind blowing in.
While that will certainly play a part, it’s still not enough to get me off this Over: The Yankees have already illustrated enough diversity at the plate to suggest they can score plenty of runs with hard-contact rather than relying on the home run.
On the other side, we’ve yet to mention Ryan Weathers on the mound for New York. He should be better than Meyer, but he’s still exploitable and struggled during Spring Training.
I don’t think the Marlins will need to do much to push this Over either, as I expect the Yankee bats to do some heavy lifting yet again.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 1-1, +0.12 units
Over/Under bets: 3-0, +3 units
Marlins vs Yankees odds
Moneyline: Miami +156 | New York -163
Run line: Miami +1.5| New York -1.5
Over/Under: Over 7.5| Under 7.5
Marlins vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+18.25 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Yankees.
How to watch Marlins vs Yankees and game info
Location
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date
Saturday, April 4, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
Marlins TV, YES
Marlins starting pitcher
Max Meyer
(0-0, 5.40 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher
Ryan Weathers
(0-0, 2.08 ERA)
Marlins vs Yankees latest injuries
Marlins vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
His work has been featured on various websites such as SBNation, Rivals, Bleacher Report, and 247Sports. He has appeared on radio outlets such as ESPN 680 and The Sharp 600 podcast. You can listen to his own podcast, “What High School Did You Go To?” on Apple Podcast and Soundcloud.
Chris has carved out a niche as a college basketball originator with massive profitability success in that sport and stresses one piece of advice to sports bettors: exploit edges as broadly as possible and take advantage of them while they last. His preferred sportsbook is bet365 because of the range of markets you can find.
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