Brandon Woodruff is a Milwaukee Brewers lifer. He was drafted by the organization in the 11th round in 2014, and it’s safe to say that he has greatly surpassed expectations since then. Over his career, all of which he has spent in the Brewers organization, he’s pitched in nine big-league seasons to a 3.11 ERA and 3.21 FIP.

Sadly, fans haven’t seen quite as much of him as that implies. Injuries have limited him to just 750 innings over that span, and he has pitched more than 100 innings in just three seasons. Things have gotten especially bad since he turned 30, as he’s pitched a total of just 136 ⅔ innings over the past four years.

For the first several years of his career, he was an outstanding starter, thanks to his stuff staying intact through various injuries. Unfortunately, it’s clear now that his stuff will not come all the way (or, arguably, even most of the way) back from the major shoulder injury that kept him off a big-league mound for 20 months. The most notable difference is his average fastball velocity, which has dropped from 95.5 mph in 2023 to just 92.9 mph in 2026.

Woodruff is undeterred and has continued to adapt his pitching to fit his new limitations. Upon his return in 2025, he added a new cutter and sweeper, while phasing out his slider and decreasing his four-seam fastball usage. This allowed him to pitch to a 3.20 ERA and 3.17 FIP over 64 ⅔ innings, but can he repeat the same success this year?

In his first start of the year against the Rays, he struck out six over five innings. Overall, it was a strong outing, but it highlighted that his sinker may not stick around in his arsenal for long. Of the four hits he gave up, three came against his sinker, and two of those were solo home runs. Looking back, it should be unsurprising that two 90-mph sinkers located in the heart of the zone ended up in the seats.

The sinker seems to have suffered the most from the dip in velocity, as Woodruff no longer has the ability to sneak it by hitters who fouled it off consistently in the past. Conversely, his four-seam fastball is still effective, thanks to its impressive 17.9 inches of induced vertical break. He also commanded it remarkably well, hitting William Contreras’s glove precisely where it was set up multiple times.

His new cutter has also been effective and shares remarkable similarities to Chad Patrick’s, coming in in the upper 80s and featuring more movement than your average big-league cutter. Given how effective it has been since debuting in 2025, it’s feasible that it’s used more frequently against right-handed hitters instead of his sinker.

We didn’t get to see much of his secondary pitches, since 56 of the 67 total pitches he threw against the Rays were fastball variants, but if 2025 was any indication, his changeup could play an important role this year. Hitters really struggled against Woodruff’s off-speed pitch last season, slugging just .063 while whiffing 35.4% of the time.

Woodruff seems undecided on his sweeper thus far, throwing it occasionally but without enough consistency for it to really have a dedicated place in his arsenal. When he did throw it last year, it didn’t seem to do what he wanted and would end up in a suboptimal part of the strike zone.

It’s an overplayed stereotype that pitchers who lack the stuff to be competitive must instead rely on being “crafty,” but in the case of Woodruff, that seems to be exactly what he’s doing. Precise command will be the name of the game, and if the ability to miss bats isn’t there, he’ll have to settle for soft contact—even if it’s something he hasn’t been historically good at. 

Fastballs up in the zone and changeups down and away should be his bread and butter moving forward. If he is intent on keeping one or both of the sinker and cutter, he’ll have to figure out how to get more ground balls out of them. 

At 33 years old, Woodruff isn’t quite over the hill, but his days of dominating hitters in the zone with upper-90s velocity are behind him. Luckily, if there’s any team that can get the most out of him, it’s the Brewers. This is likely the last year that he’ll stay in Milwaukee’s rotation, given their logjam of young pitching talent rising up the ranks, but if it’s the year the Crew finally returns to the World Series, it will be the crowning achievement of Woodruff’s long service to the franchise.