The Padres and Pirates are set to continue their series at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to Pittsburgh’s starting pitcher, Paul Skenes, and his strikeout props.

The San Diego Padres are visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET/3:40 p.m. PT. Paul Skenes will take the bump for the Pirates, facing off against Padres veteran Nick Pivetta at PNC Park. Looking at the odds, lines and Skenes’ strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the reigning NL Cy Young could perform in his second outing of the season.

Paul Skenes Strikeouts Prop

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Skenes’ strikeouts thrown line set at 6.5 for Tuesday’s contest against the Padres.

Skenes took a major step in the right direction the last time he took the mound, coming off a disastrous performance on Opening Day. The righty allowed four hits, two walks and five earned runs in 0.2 innings against the Mets back on March 26. Then, he gave up three hits, two walks and one earned run in 5.0 innings on April 1 versus the Reds. Between those two outings, Skenes has racked up six strikeouts. On the whole this season, he now boasts a 1-1 record with a 9.53 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a -0.3 WAR.

Those numbers aren’t even in the same zip code as his production from 2024 and 2025 – when he won NL Rookie of the Year and NL Cy Young, respectively. He entered 2026 with a 21-13 record, 1.96 ERA, 0.948 WHIP, 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 13.5 WAR through 55 career starts. The former No. 1 overall pick and College World Series champion out of LSU is still just 23 years old.

Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Skenes is projected to go 12-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 195 strikeouts across 30 starts and 178.0 innings in the remainder of 2026. His 5.7 projected fWAR ranks No. 2 among starting pitchers, while his projected 10.99 strikeouts per nine innings ranks No. 4.

Paul Skenes picks, predictions

Skenes went over 6.5 strikeouts in 18 of his 32 starts in 2025 after going 16-for-23 in 2024. He has gone at least 5.0 innings deep in 51 of his 57 career starts, so his Opening Day dud was a blip on the radar.

The Padres rank No. 28 in MLB with a 76 OPS+, so they aren’t poised to chase Skenes off the mound early like the Mets (104 OPS+) did. At the same time, however, San Diego has the eighth-fewest strikeouts in the majors at 82. The Padres have struck out 4, 5, 6, 3, 5 and 5 times in the first 6.0 innings over their last six games. They have only gone over 6.5 strikeouts through 6.0 innings once through 10 games this season.

As a result, I won’t feel good about Skenes clearing 6.5 strikeouts unless he tosses at least 7.0 innings. He only did so six times in 2025, while not a single starter has lasted that long against San Diego so far in 2026. Skenes should stay hot with a favorable matchup, just not one that is particularly strikeout-prone.

Best Bet: Paul Skenes under 6.5 strikeouts thrown (-109)