The Tigers and Twins are set to continue their series at Target Field on Wednesday night. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to Detroit’s starting pitcher, Framber Valdez, and his strikeout props.

The Detroit Tigers are visiting the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday, with first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. CT. Framber Valdez will take the bump for the Tigers, facing off against Twins righty Bailey Ober in Minneapolis. Looking at the odds, lines and Valdez’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the All-Star southpaw could perform in his second outing of the season.

Framber Valdez Strikeouts Prop

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Valdez’s strikeouts thrown line set at 5.5 for Wednesday’s contest against the Twins.

Through two starts this season, Valdez is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and 0.6 WAR. He lasted 6.0 innings in both outings, recording five strikeouts in each. Valdez enjoyed a far cleaner outing on April 3 than he did on March 27, allowing three hits, two walks and no runs after giving up seven hits, one walk, one earned run and one unearned run in his regular season debut. In that limited sample size, Valdez ranks in the 84th percentile in breaking ball run value and 97th percentile in offspeed pitch run value, per Baseball Savant. His fastball run value, on the other hand, is in the 30th percentile. Valdez is getting batters to chase at a 38.3% rate – which ranks in the 92nd percentile – but his whiff rate ranks in the 15th percentile at 17.9%.

Valdez took a bit of a step back in 2025, considering what he accomplished in prior seasons. The southpaw earned All-Star bids in 2022 and 2023, on top of placing top-10 in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Still, he went 13-11 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.6 WAR across 192.0 innings in 2025. Valdez spun that into a shorter-term “prove it” deal with Detroit, securing $65.6 million over the next two years, plus $75 million in options over the following two.

Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Valdez is projected to go 11-9 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 165 strikeouts across 29 starts and 177.0 innings in the remainder of 2026. His 3.7 projected fWAR ranks No. 11 among starters, while his projected 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings rank No. 106.

Framber Valdez picks, predictions

The Twins’ lineup ranks No. 5 in MLB with 10.0 strikeouts per game. They also boast a 91 OPS+ – a below-average mark just like Valdez’s last two opponents in the Cardinals and Padres. Tarik Skubal got Minnesota to strike out seven times in 4.2 innings of work on Wednesday. Four of the last six starters who faced the Twins cleared 5.5 strikeouts. And while Valdez has struggled to generate whiffs through two starts this season, Minnesota has the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors. He has barely used his slider and hasn’t touched his four-seamer, but his sinker and curveball have been solid. If Valdez can get his changeup working, he can really become a dominant No. 2 behind Skubal.

Valdez went over 5.5 strikeouts in 16 of his 31 starts in 2025, but he went a slightly more encouraging 16-for-28 when lasting at least 5.0 innings. His strikeout rate has typically sat around 23% and 24% over the past few seasons, so it isn’t that much of a leap to expect his 20% mark so far this year to go up a tick sooner rather than later. Brooks Lee, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, Matt Wallner and James Outman all have strikeout rates of 25% or above this season, and I can see them falling victim to Valdez’s stuff on Wednesday.

Best Bet: Framber Valdez over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (-110)