Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets on Wednesday’s MLB slate.

We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. The New York Mets (7-4) took the opening game of this series to make it four straight wins, while the Arizona Diamondbacks (5-6) are seeking to capture some positive momentum on this northeast road trip. Game two of the series between the two begins at 4:10 p.m. ET this afternoon.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for today’s Diamondbacks vs. Mets matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Diamondbacks vs. Mets prediction, preview

Arizona Diamondbacks

Game one of this series ended in a 4-3 extra-innings loss for the D-Backs despite having a slight nine-to-eight advantage in the hit column. They’re scoring just 3.45 runs per game at the moment and their results at the plate aren’t great with a .632 OPS via a .213/.274/.357 slash line. Their .144 ISO comes in at eighth but they’ve hit only eight home runs to this point. Is there some bad luck involved with the third-lowest BABIP at .252? Possibly, but a poor walk rate of 7.3% gives the Snakes the 24th-ranked BB/K ratio at only 0.35. Arizona’s pitching staff holds a 4.35 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP, but it should be noted that its LOB% of 64.4% is second worst in the Majors. A 17.9% K% is also third lowest of any team.

New York Mets

The Mets are first in the NL East’s early going and are still undefeated since Juan Soto went down with a calf injury, taking four straight games. Now, the superstar lands on IL, but it seems the team may be okay for the moment even without him after scoring a combined 28 runs over these four games (the first of which he saw just one AB in). New York averages 4.82 runs per game and has the 10th-best OPS at .711 via a .249/.330/.380 slash line. The group still hit slashed .297/.339/.387 across three games in which Soto hasn’t appeared in with a .726 OPS, too. A .131 ISO is uninspiring and partially attributed to the departure of Pete Alonso over the offseason, as are the Mets’ nine homers, which are on the lower end. Pitching has been a massive strength with a 2.54 ERA (third best) and 1.16 WHIP (seventh best), also bringing a 15.3% K-BB% (10th best).

Tonight’s starting pitchers

The Diamondbacks trot out Ryne Nelson, the RHP who’s seen a rough first two starts of 2026 but was quite good in 2025. He’s gone just 4.2 innings in each of his two outings with four and two earned runs allowed in those, and his four homers given up are second most in the NL. However, he’s only given up five total hits over those 9.1 IP with a 1.18 WHIP. Last year, he also finished the season with a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

It’s LHP David Peterson for the Mets this afternoon after a difficult first couple of games this season. He’s thrown 9.2 total innings with just five earned runs and four walks allowed, striking out eight hitters. However, he’s given up 15 hits, ninth most in the NL. He brings a 4.66 ERA and 1.97 WHIP into this game as a result. In 2025, he finished with a 4.22 ERA/1.37 WHIP split.

Diamondbacks vs. Mets pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets as -141 ML favorites. The Diamondbacks are behind at +117 odds to win outright. The run total sits at 7.5 combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: NY Mets over 3.5 runs (-125)

I like the Mets to record over 3.5 runs today for two key reasons. Soto’s absence hurts, but they’ve still posted four or more runs in all their games without him as well as in the one he exited after his first AB. Yes, Nelson has kept runners off the basepaths for the most part, but there’s danger in his profile with an 11th-percentile hard-hit rate, 12th-percentile GB% and fifth-percentile barrel rate (the sample size is obviously small though). That’s not totally out of the norm either, especially since he posted a 12th-percentile hard-hit rate and fourth-percentile average exit velo in 2025. Between these factors and a really rough 6.02 ERA and 57.6% LOB% from the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, I think New York scores just fine today.