Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners.
There’s a different kind of pressure in games like this—two teams that haven’t separated themselves yet, trading blows in a series that’s already produced a 9–6 Washington win and a 7–6 St. Louis extra-inning response. The St. Louis Cardinals sit at 5–6 trying to stabilize after an uneven opening stretch, while the Washington Nationals, now 4–7, are still searching for a way to convert offensive output into actual wins. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Michael McGreevy has been far more efficient than dominant, but that efficiency matters—2.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, just two walks in 10.2 innings, and a contact profile that has kept innings from spiraling. He’s not overpowering (mid-4s xFIP range), but he’s avoided free passes and limited multi-run innings. Miles Mikolas has been the opposite. Through two starts: 14.46 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 17 hits and five home runs allowed in just 9.1 innings. That’s not just traffic—that’s damage. Washington as a staff mirrors it: 6.06 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 23 home runs allowed already. Even if you believe Mikolas’ underlying pitch models (100+ Pitching+) suggest some regression, the current reality is that hitters are squaring him up consistently, and that creates a completely different run environment for St. Louis than McGreevy does for Washington.
The player layer reinforces that imbalance, even if Washington’s bats have been the louder group on paper. CJ Abrams (.308/.413/.615, four homers, 14 RBI) and James Wood (four homers, three straight games with one) are real problems at the top, and Brady House (.317/.378/.537) and Luis García Jr. (.297/.514 SLG) give the Nationals a legitimate scoring core. But St. Louis is bringing a different kind of pressure—more distributed, more situational. Jordan Walker has homered in back-to-back games and is running an OPS north of 1.000 in the early sample, Nolan Gorman just put up a three-hit game, and JJ Wetherholt and Thomas Saggese have both delivered extra-inning RBI hits in this series. Really, it’s a battle of two lineups vying to see who can keep innings alive long enough to punish a starter who is already giving up impact contact.
Cardinals vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Washington has done one thing surprisingly well this season: hit! This is a randy lineup. A .276/.351/.453 team slash with 16 home runs through 11 games is a legitimate offensive base, and McGreevy’s underlying indicators—3.25 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, and a much higher expected ERA—suggest he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as his surface line implies. If that regression shows up today, Washington absolutely has the firepower to match St. Louis early, especially with Abrams and Wood both swinging well. And if this game turns into another back-and-forth scoring environment like the first two in the series, a side that depends on cleaner run prevention becomes more fragile.
But that’s where the game separates over nine innings. Washington’s offense has been good enough to win games—it just hasn’t been supported. The Nationals have lost six of seven not because they can’t score, but because they can’t stop the bleeding. The bullpen has carried over last year’s issues (5.59 ERA in 2025), and that has already shown up again this week in late-game collapses. St. Louis, by contrast, has at least shown the ability to convert middle-inning pressure into late runs, and in a game where Mikolas is already allowing home-run-level damage, the Cardinals don’t need perfect offense—they need sustained traffic and one or two swings. That’s a much more repeatable path against this pitching staff than asking Washington to suppress St. Louis for nine innings.
Best bet: Cardinals team total over 4.5 (+105).
Best bet: Cardinals TT o4.5 total runs (+105)
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