The Yankees are -200 favorites vs the Rays

Yankees vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs

Yankees / Rays TV Channel: RATV | YES

The New York Yankees (-200) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+165) on April 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Yankees are 8-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 6-7 ATS.

Yankees vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 2-0, 1.35 ERA

Rays starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 0-0, 2.19 ERA

Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineYankees-1.5 -105O 7.5 -110-200Rays +1.5 -115U 7.5 -110+165

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+15.35 Units / 102% ROI)

Ben Rice has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 52% ROI)

Aaron Judge has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)

Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.60 Units / 102% ROI)

Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 51% ROI)

Junior Caminero has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.80 Units / 98% ROI)

Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 38% ROI)

Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 38% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+13.05 Units / 40% ROI)

The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)

The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)

The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 away games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+4.70 Units / 17% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 8-5 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 35.4% ROI).

8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -5.39% ROI

4-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -26.24% ROI

7-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 16.55% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 6-7 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -13.43% ROI).

6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -10.54% ROI

8-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 33.1% ROI

3-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -41.32% ROI

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Yankees were 94-68 (.580) in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Yankees are 49-39 (.557) on the road since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .456.

The Yankees are 39-22 (.639) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face the Rays (27th runs allowed).

The Yankees are 102-73 (.583) since the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Rays are just 67-11 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.

The Rays are just 61-14 (.813) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Rays are just 81-84 (.491) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Rays are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .027.

Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends

The Yankees are batting just .119 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Yankees hitters are slugging just .208 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2024 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of just .280 (68 PA’s) against LHP this month (6 games) — lowest in MLB.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .306 with runners on base in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have missed on just 20% of swings this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have put 45% of their swings in play with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB.

Rays hitters have a swing rate of 50% against RHP since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends

The Yankees pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Yankees pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .280 this season — best in MLB.

The Yankees have allowed 2.62 runs per game (34/13) this season — best in MLB.

The Yankees pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since the 2024 season — lowest in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% against Rays pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Rays pitchers this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB.

Rays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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