Jason Ence
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 11, 2026 , 10:16 AM ET
• 4 min read
Ence’s Prediction: Logan Webb and the Giants beat the Orioles.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants MLB
The San Francisco Giants seek their fourth win in a row on Saturday night when they take on the Baltimore Orioles.
It’s been a nightmare start to the season for Baltimore starter Chris Bassitt, which is why our MLB odds have the Giants favored to claim the victory and clinch the series.
My Giants vs. Orioles predictions have MLB picks for the side and total as I explain why Bassitt’s struggles are likely to continue.Â
Who will win Giants vs Orioles today: Giants (-113)
Getting ground-ball outs becomes important when playing in Oriole Park. Logan Webb does that well, ranking in the 91st percentile a season ago and the 86th percentile in 2026.Â
Baltimore Orioles starter Chris Bassitt is struggling to get outs. 54% of his pitches to RHH this season have been fastballs, which is more of a local than an express.
Command is also Bassit’s issue, posting a 15% BB walk rate vs. a 7.5% K rate.
Bassitt is getting destroyed by lefty bats, who are splitting .500/.583/.813 this season. With the short porch in RF, this sets up extremely well for the San Francisco Giants to win.Â
COVERS INTEL: Rafael Devers has a career .500/1.100/1.600 split vs. Chris Bassitt, with three 2B and three HR in 20 plate appearances.
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Giants vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+103)
I love the Over in this matchup. Webb is the better pitcher, but he’s not been great. He’s been a tad unlucky, given his 5.00 ERA exceeds his 3.50 xFIP, but he’s also rocking a .281 xBA.
The Giants rank near the bottom of the league in wOBAcon and hard-hit rate, and are dead last in barrel rate. The matchup with Bassitt raises their scoring floor.
Despite just 18 runs in the last six games, the Orioles rank fourth in BABIP and eighth in wRC+.
This matchup of two sub-par starters will lead to a third straight Over for the Orioles.
Jason Ence’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 0-2, -2.22 units
Over/Under bets: 2-0, +2.0 units
Giants vs Orioles odds
Moneyline: Giants -113 | Orioles +108
Run line: Giants -1.5 (+156) | Orioles +1.5 (-163)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+108) | Under 7.5 (-113)
Giants vs Orioles trend
[Stat]. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Orioles.
How to watch Giants vs Orioles and game info
Location
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date
Saturday, April 11, 2026
First pitch
7:15 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Giants starting pitcher
Logan Webb
(1-1, 5.00 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher
Chris Bassitt
(0-2, 14.21 ERA)
Giants vs Orioles latest injuries
Giants vs Orioles weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason has been hooked on football since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.
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