Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 77 pitches.
I’ve been stubborn about my opinion on Braxton Ashcraft and after yesterday’s Gallows Pole against the Cubs via 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 77 pitches (ND), I’d be betraying my ethos if I stuck to my guns just because of a bruised ego.
That isn’t to say that I’m completely sold on Ashcraft. I still have my reservations about his ability to locate his arsenal effectively (~60% strikes on both four-seamers and curveballs with many easy takes), but I loved watching his 92 mph slider return 5/9 whiffs (use it more!) and featuring an effective splitter to LHB – which I can get behind if used as a surprise pitch and not a main feature.
I’m not going to speculate about his true talent, wondering about the Shag Rug that is sure to appear in time, or if the fastball is a strong enough foundation for the breakers to produce a 30% strikeout rate, or if his stamina is going to inhibit him across the season, etc. etc. What I am going to say is he’s worth the hold for now given WSN, @ TEX, STL up next. That’s obvious, you don’t need me. I would be selling high if possible, though. There’s a chance he produces the full year, absolutely, but in my view, there are too many red flags to believe we’re watching a true breakout ahead of us.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 88 pitches.
I can see you now. You’re really tempted to Vargas Rule this. He’s been on such a tear with one earned run in three starts and he’s using his full arsenal with two changeups (kick-change and his signature), but it’s the Yankees, BAL, Sacré Verde next. He just earned a King Cole! Against the CrySox. Fine, we gotta try, right?
Parker Messick (CLE) @ ATL (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.
Oh dang, now he has a cutter! Exclusive to RHB and 2/7 thrown returned outs in play. I’ll take that all day as a fun surprise off his high four-seamer, helping out a SWATCH who has cruised through his first three starts with nearly six innings per game and just one earned run (like Wacha!). Solid schedule ahead too. ALL ABOARD!
Ranger Suarez (BOS) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
It’s about dang time he came through. This precision we’ve seen from Suarez during his previous hot stretches, though, and it may just be a Dennis with DET, NYY, @TOR up next. He’s earned a shot against Detroit with this one, though.
Foster Griffin (WSN) @ MIL (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 80 pitches.
Eno and I talked about Foster on The Craft podcast this week and Eno pointed out that the large pitch mix + little data on Foster for Trajekt is likely helping him early on in the year. You saw Griffin get the focus after his last start and y’all know I don’t really love this. And yet, @PIT is next, with ATL + CrySox after. Maybe he can wriggle out some more dubs…But three walks and just one strikeout! Yeah, yeah HAISTBMBWT?! It doesn’t instill confidence, especially with a terrible feel for the sweeper to LHB. Don’t overinvest here.
Casey Mize (DET) vs MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.
Sure, it was 50 degrees, but how long can I keep using that excuse for Mize’s massive two tick velocity dip? He got away with a lot in this one and I’d Blame it on The Marlins more than anything. No way I’m starting him in Fenway.
Erick Fedde (CHW) @ KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
Hey, that’s worthy of a Gold Star. Too bad this Birthday Party didn’t grant the gift of a win, but you can’t have it all. He has his increased faith in his sweeper to thank for the stellar day, bumping it up 13% usage to both LHB and RHB, earning a 21% SwStr rate and 73% strikes, while everything else went 1/41 whiffs.
Martín Pérez (ATL) vs CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
Honestly, that’s as fantastic of an outing you could have hoped for from Pérez. With a dub. Sorry, realistically hoped for.
Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.
In my head, all I can hear is Don King Lucius Sweet telling Moe Szyslak You couldn’t give me three rounds five innings?! I don’t want this in my world.
Nick Martinez (TBR) vs NYY (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
He battled and made it work against a tough offense, even if it’s not great for your fantasy squads. It’s good to see the changeup feel is generally there at 40% usage and now may be the time to stream with @PIT, Reds Carpet and @CLE next. Not a bad deep league option.
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This was in a dome and he sat 92/93 mph. Wait, that’s not 94 mph. No, it’s not. He sat there the entire game, for what it’s worth, which means he’s comfortable at that velocity and likely a new baseline for this year. It’s not terrible, just not as exciting as we want it to be for him to be the potential elite stud we want him to be.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
I love that some of y’all still remember my anger that Turnbull’s career effectively ended due to Walker’s return from the IL. I don’t care if this one went well, I’ll never forgive the Phillies for that. ANYWAY, good job fella. You may get displaced by Wheeler after your next start against ATL (nooope), but who knows. You always find a way to here.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs WSN (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 76 pitches.
Harrison took a comebacker…wait, no, a fastball to the kneecap from teammate Gary Sánchez when he covered first in the opening frame. Say what. Yeaaah. He stuck around and didn’t showcase a velocity dip until the final inning, but now he’s off to get an MRI and that doesn’t sound great. Brandon Sproat came in on his bullpen day for 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 65 pitches and guess what? He’s also getting looked at for a knee injury after diving for a ball during this game. He’s apparently okay and I’m glad we finally got a decent line from the fella, even if his sinker went 43% strikes and the overall command was pretty iffy. He should be back in the rotation on Saturday, with the Pirates and Arizona after and you know me. I’m tempted to give it a whirl as I see Sproat with a TIARA. Just one game where it clicks and we’re off to the faces. Those matchups minimize the risk a little, right? You gotta let it go Nick. I’m sorry, I’m simply not the guy who will give up because the results aren’t great for a handful of games. That’s not 100% correlation, y’all. And yet, obviously there’s a decent chance it doesn’t pan out. You do you.
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs BOS (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 71 pitches.
We’re still not there yet. Here’s to hoping he gets it for the Astros next so we can circle the Marlins and Pirates after.
Max Fried (NYY) @ TBR (ND) – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna ace with a Careful, Icarus in the eighth as he allowed the tying run to score after just getting the 3-2 lead in the top of the frame. The good news? He’s a little higher on his sinker velocity. If only the changeup were a touch better…
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 77 pitches.
OH BABY. Not only did he hit 96+ mph for the first time this year, he sat 95.2 mph across the outing, with a small dip in the sixth as we normally see across the league. And look at that, a co-share of the Gallows Pole! What a lovely day. Except for the pain caused by that Nimmo fella. Yeaaaah, a leadoff HR and a two-run shot in the sixth (Careful, Icarus) did all the damage here – both pitches located down-and-in to Nimmo and super correctable. I’m so sorry for the doom and gloom, and I’m so happy it’s time to jump back in.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 101 pitches.
Is this the last start of Pfaadt? Kelly is expected back this week and I don’t see who gets the axe otherwise, given Soroka’s stellar strikeout ability. And yet, a PQS against the Phillies with a strong cutter and sweeper + effective sinker is pretty cool. Too bad the four-seamer, curve, and change still need polish.
Edward Cabrera (CHC) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
It was cold once again (48 degrees, yeesh) and I’m blaming the two tick drop in changeup and four-seamer velocity on it, but at least both the sinker and four-seamer returned 60% strikes (barely). Who cares, that was a bad start. Yeeeaaaah, not a fun one at all. He’ll get the Mets next, who are laboring as much as any team, and I think we just close our eyes and let it fly. This should be better when he’s in warmer weather.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) vs LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
Blegh. His changeup was great to RHB, but the cutter was horrendous with a 37% strike rate. That’s the pitch that gets me excited for Williamson and after boasting that feel last game, it’s awfully disappointing to see it disappear. So what do we do now? Why, stream him against the Twins and act like this didn’t happen. Seriously? I’ll put him in questionable start if I must, but in all likelihood, yeah, I’m in. This pitch is the pitch for him. That said, the ceiling isn’t too high and the risk is clear, so fine, top of Questionable.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
You know, I had Webb ranked around #30 in the fall since I didn’t believe Webb was the high strikeout arm of 2025 and the 1.20+ WHIP felt inevitable to repeat. Then I slowed raised him for his expected volume n all, and now he has a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with just a 20% strikeout rate in four games. Small sam–I know. It’s dumb to quote this stuff now, but at the very least, can I stop calling him an ace? He’s a Holly. Always has been.
Germán Márquez (SDP) vs COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
It was a revenge game and a part of me really want to slot him at the bottom of the third tier, and unfortunately for Márquez, he didn’t have the feel for his breakers. Poor locations on those led to three HRs on fastballs (two from Moniak!) and that’s your ballgame. Welp, back to never considering him again.
Janson Junk (MIA) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
Blegh. Man, this is frustrating. Junk’s new-and-improved stuff is so thrilling and I don’t regret endorsing him a week ago. I do wish I could believe he could feature above-average command that would let his improved fastball to land upstairs frequently. THAT SAID, after pitching in domed Miami and warmer environments, it’s clear the 50 degree weather affected him with a massive velocity drop across everything from the first frame. So fine, I’ll hold for the next two against the Brewers and St. Louis in Miami and take it from there.
George Klassen (LAA) @ CIN (L) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 72 pitches.
Yeaaaah, Klawssen ain’t it. The Kla code is apparently “hope it’s a strike”. I cannot co-work with that.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
I’m still waiting for that one start where Lopez has the cutter/four-seamer attack up-and-away to RHB working for a fantastic K/BB ratio. Until then, I’m out.
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ LAD (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
Yes, it was the Dodgers. I know. It’s also @ATH, PIT, NYY up next, and if Leiter were able to locate his arsenal effectively, I’d have more faith to stick it out with him. I will mention, I did like that he replicated most his pitches’ movement far more in this one than his last start (save for the changeup and its 41% strike rate. Blegh.), but then again, does that actually signal better feel/command? Anyway, I still consider Leiter a HIPSTER and I’d rather try other arms.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) @ SEA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
Womp womp. Not even in Seattle, I guess. The new cutter wasn’t stealing strikes as it did in his season debut and boy was his secondary all over the place. Let’s just not.
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ SDP (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
Okay, so Feltner is throwing harder (up to 95 from 93/94) with a ton more extension (not six feet, but 6.5 feet!) and it doesn’t matter as his pitches feature suspect movement. But at least now we know!
Eric Lauer (TOR) vs MIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
I failed y’all by not reporting on Lauer’s case of the flu that affected his last outing, and it sure looks like his two tick dip in velocity is down with the sickness. Please move on from Lauer before I get a headache from hearing all of you screaming OOOOWAHHHAHHHAHH.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs HOU (ND) – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
Castillo is bad in the cold. This was a closed dome in Seattle. Oh. Everything got tagged by the Astros, even with Castillo’s solid slider command to RHB. It’s really hard to endorse Castillo for your rosters when he puts up disaster starts like this at home, which is usually the only scenario where you actually trust him in your roster. I think it’s time to move on, y’all. I’ve been discouraged by his arsenal for a bit and I don’t think this is worthwhile.
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs ATH (L) – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 72 pitches.
Oh jeeeeeeeeeez. Senga was sitting 96/97 mph in the first, before a pair of singles and walks in a laborious second pushed him (but his last heater was 97.4 mph), and then it fell to 94 mph in the fird as he was pushed. It looked as though he was throwing changeups mixed with his forkball in this one (originally classified as sinkers, but they were at 86/87 mph), and this was a day of Senga simply not finding any sort of rhythm. He didn’t have the cutter to save him, he went with the forkball more often to try to find something, and it was just a terrible day. I don’t think that late velocity dip is super scary – 72 pitches with just seven outs is a tiring effort – and I’m going to stick it out. Maybe bench him for the Cubs, but I have to believe he either hits the IL or is good enough to start for the Twins and Nationals. IL?! Well, if the concern here is velocity dips n all, that would be an injury, no? I do not believe he will at all, but that’s the only scenario I see where we’re not cool with Senga on the 23rd vs. MIN.
Game of the Day
Jacob deGrom vs. Roki Sasaki – It’s deGrom vs. the Dodgers. I love that. And maybe Sasaki is okay?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)