Derek CartyApr 13, 2026, 08:57 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Monday’s top batter prop bets

James Wood | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+121)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.85 EV
One reason to bet this: Wood has made sizable Barrel gains, bettering his 16.1% rate of last season to 24.3% so far in 2026.

Luke Raley | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Raley has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on fly balls, up to a 99.9 mph average over the last seven days.

Jose Fernandez | OVER 1.5 TB (+207)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.31 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.1 mph in this contest, the second-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Miguel Rojas | UNDER 0.5 H (+148)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Rojas has only a 4.1 Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power). That falls in the 13th percentile of all hitters.

Monday’s top pitcher prop bets

Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 1.5 ER (+109)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.15 EV
One reason to bet this: The Phillies have the third-best infield defense in the league, which tends to help minimize baserunners.

Bailey Ober | OVER 4.5 K (+119)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.79 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 23.8 underlying K%, the Boston Red Sox have the fifth-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Mike Burrows | UNDER 2.5 ER (-128)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of 2025, Burrows’ fastball velocity of 94.7 mph has ranked in the 76th percentile of all starters.

THE BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Michael Burrows

+141

42.2

1.77

+1.0

-105

2.27

7.5

O -108

7.90

-7.27

George Kirby

-171

57.8

-8.45

-1.0

-124

-13.98

U -112

-1.86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ryne Nelson

+109

46.5

-2.75

+1.0

-143

-4.13

8.5

O -115

8.92

-10.07

Dean Kremer

-131

53.5

-5.71

-1.0

+110

-8.48

U -105

1.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cade Cavalli

+184

35.3

-1.59

+1.5

-122

-4.90

7.5

O +104

8.45

7.67

Paul Skenes

-226

64.7

-5.73

-1.5

+102

-3.57

U -125

-15.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Javier Assad

+153

31.6

-22.25

+1.0

+105

-22.82

8.0

O -115

8.67

-4.84

Cristopher Sanchez

-186

68.5

6.51

-1.0

-137

7.86

U -105

-4.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yusei Kikuchi

+153

38.2

-5.05

+1.0

+105

-6.87

9.0

O -112

9.39

-11.60

Will Warren

-186

61.8

-3.94

-1.0

-137

-5.60

U -108

2.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eury Perez

+119

48.8

7.29

+1.0

-128

5.54

8.0

O -117

8.82

-3.98

Grant Holmes

-143

51.2

-13.32

-1.0

-101

-18.90

U -103

-4.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Garrett Crochet

-168

65.4

5.91

-1.5

+104

9.53

7.5

O +102

8.42

6.11

Bailey Ober

+139

34.6

-19.67

+1.5

-126

-16.94

U -122

-13.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gavin Williams

-118

54.0

1.19

-1.0

+108

-1.20

8.0

O -108

7.85

-16.70

Matthew Liberatore

-102

46.0

-10.43

+1.0

-140

-10.00

U -112

7.42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nathan Eovaldi

-131

57.6

2.42

-1.0

-109

-0.47

9.0

O -105

9.32

-10.82

Luis Severino

+109

42.4

-12.39

+1.0

-120

-11.84

U -115

1.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Peterson

+139

46.3

10.70

+1.0

-106

9.20

9.0

O -108

8.90

-18.86

Justin Wrobleski

-168

53.7

-14.37

-1.0

-122

-20.28

U -112

9.54

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

Athletics Moneyline:
The A’s are currently on a five-game winning streak. (+7.40 Units / 148% ROI). Current odds: +109

Washington Nationals Run Line:
The Nationals have outscored their run line in seven consecutive road games. (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -120

Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line:
The Diamondbacks have won this bet in eight straight road games. (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -143

Philadelphia Phillies Team Total UNDER:
The Phillies have gone under for this bet in five consecutive games. (+5.10 Units / 83% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -120