Charlie Cummings previews Thursday’s MLB matchup between the Washington Nationals and the Pittsburgh Pirates and provides his best pick.

Baseball waits for no man. This four-game series between the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates rolls on this Thursday. Which squad gets on the team plane with their heads held high?

First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. The Pirates are -156 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Nationals upset is priced at +129. The game total is set at O/U nine runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Nationals-Pirates game.

Nationals vs. Pirates Preview

First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.

Foster Griffin has been an early surprise for the Nationals. A former first-round pick by the Kansas City Royals, Griffin flamed out in MLB early and chose to take his talents to Japan. After three years overseas, he’s back in the bigs and looking to make a name for himself. So far, so good; Griffin has a 1.76 ERA through three starts in DC.

But the underlying numbers are not so friendly. A low ground-ball rate, high hard-hit rate, and limited swing-and-miss ability add up to a 4.89 expected ERA on the season — three full runs above his actual mark. There is some luck at play, but we have to take some time to adjust to Griffin’s new normal. As a guy who throws seven pitches with regularity and without much velocity, perhaps he’s the kind of pitcher who breaks the advanced stats.

Opposite him is one of Pittsburgh’s young electric arms, Braxton Ashcraft. The 26-year-old debuted last year, posting a strong 2.71 ERA across eight starts and 18 relief appearances. Now he’s in a full-time rotation role and performing quite well. Through three turns, Ashcraft has a 2.12 ERA, backed up by a 2.19 expected ERA.

The big-time stuff is playing well. Ashcraft throws some absolute gas, averaging 96.6 MPH with his fastball. The sinker comes in with the same velocity, and he’s partial to Uncle Charlie, throwing a massive curveball to buckle hitters. You’ll also see a potent slider, and he’s been workshopping a splitter, which is all the rage with pitchers. With a strong strikeout and ground ball rate, there is plenty of reason to believe that Ashcraft’s success is sustainable.

Braxton Ashcraft fired off a great start today, striking out 8 over 6.0 IP

The Pirates righty was my breakout pick entering the season, and he looks solid thus far. His high 90s heat paired with a duo of strong breaking balls is a recipe for success! pic.twitter.com/17pIl0lYuO

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 5, 2026

This Nationals offense has been one of the biggest surprises in the league. As of Wednesday night, Washington is leading the league in scoring offense, with a 121 OPS+ to back it up. James Wood and CJ Abrams — their two All-Star hitters — are fueling a potent lineup that continues to produce. No wonder they’re surprising early in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.

The Pirates have also been above average, a surprise to most. Oneil Cruz tearing the cover off the ball comes as no surprise at all, but Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have been big-time additions as well. The rest of the lineup is dragging a bit, but an above-average OPS+ is more than most expected from Pittsburgh.

Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?

Nationals vs. Pirates Pick, Best Bet

Ashcraft has the goods. Griffin does not. Sometimes, it’s as simple as that.

Griffin — the southpaw facing a lineup reliant on three lefties to do the heavy lifting — gives me pause, as does the early performance of this Washington lineup. But Ashcraft is the real deal and will frustrate a lot of these Nats hitters. That, along with the subpar Nationals bullpen, will hand a cushy victory to the Bucs.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+135)