It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

First Pitch: 7:20 PM ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

TV: Peacock

Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

Weather: 55° partly sunny, wind WNW at 13 mph

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II

Quick thoughts:

SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis García (R)
LF Brandon Marsh (L)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
2B Bryson Stott (L)
C Rafael Marchán (S)
CF Justin Crawford (L)

Quick thoughts:

Quick snapshot:

3.32 ERA / 3.16 xERA / 4.14 FIP

19.3 K% / 11.4 BB% / 8% K-BB%

Pitch mix

vs LHH: 45% four-seamer, 33% slider, 12% curveball, 7% changeup, 2% cutter & sinker

vs RHH: 49% slider, 33% four-seamer, 13% sinker, 4% curveball, 1% cutter

What’s changed in 2026:

What to watch:

There is not a ton of experience versus Holmes on Philly’s roster – in 20 career ABs, there are only three total hits off of Holmes.

In Holmes’ only career start against Philly, he went four innings last April with no runs allowed on three hits, striking out six but with four walks.

Quick snapshot:

The arsenal:

Four-seamer (36%, 96.6 mph)

Slider (19%, 88.5 mph)

Sinker (14%, 95.0 mph)

Curveball (13%, 81.0 mph)

Splitter (10%, 87.5 mph)

Sweeper (9%, 82.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: well-sequenced without notable tendencies

42% four-seamer, 23% slider, 18% curveball, 13% splitter, 2% sweeper, 1% sinker

vs RHH: well-sequenced without notable tendencies

34% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 20% sweeper, 13% slider, 4% splitter, 3% curveball

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

No Braves have seen Painter in his brief major league career, so there’s no preexisting at-bats to work off of. He’s also very well sequenced, so this will be down to pitch recognition and capitalizing on Painter’s mistakes in location.

Likely available:

Used recently:

Both Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez pitched last night but were efficient enough that they can come back today, if needed.

Potential limitations:

Quick takeaway:

Likely available:

Used recently:

Potential limitations:

Lefty Tanner Banks had extended workloads in the first two games of the series, so he should be down today.

Quick takeaway:

If Philly gets to the late game with a lead, who closes the game with Jhoan Duran on the IL?

How well does Atlanta handle Andrew Painter without the ability to sit on any specific pitch? That being said, how does Painter fare against the top of the lineup? The first inning will tell us a lot.

The Phillies are favored on the moneyline today (FanDuel) in what projects to be a low-scoring game (O/U 8). Who strikes first, and who can hold the lead late? Give me Atlanta in their first sweep of the season.