Several preseason picks for the MLB postseason have disappointed over the first month, most notably the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals. Some of these teams are in serious trouble, while others have a clear pathway to jump back into their division races.
Let’s take a look at the six aforementioned teams by diving into their present problems and the ways they might be able to correct them. I have “ranked” these teams from the ones I’m most concerned about to the teams that shouldn’t be as worried.
1. Houston AstrosHouston, you’ve got pitching problems
Starting rotation nightmare
The biggest question facing the Astros coming into the season was their starting pitching, and their rotation has been a disaster. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, starting with their ace Hunter Brown landing on the injured list with a strained right shoulder after just two starts. Free-agent signing Tatsuya Imai is on the IL, dealing with fatigue in his pitching arm. Cristian Javier, who the Astros were anticipating a strong comeback from after he missed much of the last two seasons, is also sidelined with a shoulder strain.
Losing Hunter Brown to the IL after only two starts was a huge blow for the Astros. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
Even the healthy Astros’ starters haven’t met expectations. They were counting on offseason acquisition Mike Burrows to be a steady hand in the rotation, but he’s been inconsistent at best. Oft-injured Lance McCullers Jr. has been healthy but also up-and-down.
The rotation is a mess, mostly because of injuries, but if you don’t have a rotation, you have no chance of winning, even if your lineup is producing. That’s where the Astros sit right now.
Bullpen disaster
Astros closer Josh Hader began the season on the 15-day IL with biceps tendinitis and was recently moved to the 60-day IL, meaning he can’t return until late May, at the earliest. Their fill-in closer, Bryan Abreu, can’t throw strikes, and AJ Blubaugh hasn’t been much better. One of their most reliable relievers in 2025, Bennett Souza, is on the IL with an oblique strain. Going into Tuesday’s games, the Astros bullpen had the second-highest ERA in baseball.
How do you fix it?
There are no easy fixes when a team loses its top three starting pitchers and top two impact relievers to injuries (not to mention the nine other players the team has on its crowded IL). There is no way to replace them all internally or through trades. They could try to sign free-agent pitcher Lucas Giolito or use one of their third basemen, like Isaac Paredes, to trade for a starter to at least be more competitive until their pitchers get healthy, but there isn’t much else they can do besides hope for better health soon.
Of all the disappointing teams, the Astros have the most challenging path to being a serious postseason candidate.
2. Kansas City RoyalsThe problems
Stars underperforming
I predicted that Bobby Witt Jr. would win the AL MVP this year, and the early returns on that prediction aren’t great, as he hasn’t homered through the first 25 games. In addition, All-Star Maikel Garcia and future Hall of Famer Salvador Perez are off to slow starts. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who was a key power bat in the middle of their lineup last year, isn’t hitting for power or average. Lefty Cole Ragans is considered their ace but has gone 0-4 in his first five starts and has lost the strike zone.
I think it’s just a slow start for those five and am not too concerned yet. That said, their struggles are a big part of why the Royals have played so poorly.
Lack of offense from second base
The Royals are getting nothing from second base. Jonathan India has been a total trade bust and is now on the IL with a shoulder subluxation, and Michael Massey is hitting just .207 as his replacement. They need an upgrade at the position for the short- and long-term. Maybe a trade for the Orioles’ Jeremiah Jackson when Jackson Holliday returns from the IL or Oswald Peraza of the Angels would make some sense.
Outfield platoons not producing
The Royals’ plan to platoon in both center and left field made sense on paper with Lane Thomas, Issac Collins and Kyle Isbel all being quality fourth-outfielder types who can be mixed-and-matched depending on that day’s opposing starter. Both Collins and Thomas, in particular, are struggling and the Royals aren’t getting much production from their outfield outside of everyday starter Jac Caglianone. They might need to make a deal for an impact left fielder at the trade deadline.
Bullpen crisis
The bullpen took an early hit when closer Carlos Estévez went down with shoulder inflammation. He was dealing with reduced velocity even during spring training, so this injury is very concerning. Lucas Erceg hasn’t been great as Estévez’s ninth-inning replacement thus far.
The whole group has struggled, and, as of Tuesday, the Royals had the highest bullpen ERA in baseball. They need a healthy and effective Estévez to return. If he can find his missing velocity, they can move Erceg back to the setup spot, which should help the whole bullpen.
How do you fix it?
Patience is the only answer here. Their stars must play up to their potential and, if they do, the Royals will be back in this race by midseason. In addition, the front office needs to look for upgrades at second base and left field and for more bullpen depth.
3. New York MetsThe problems
Stars hurt or not producing
The Mets’ offense is built around four key players: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco. Soto has played just eight games due to a calf injury; Lindor had surgery to repair his hamate bone this spring and is hitting .209 while playing subpar defense; Bichette is learning a new position and hitting just .219; and Polanco was hitting just .179 before landing on the injured list with a right wrist contusion and a left Achilles tendon problem.
Soto is set to return on Wednesday, which will help a lot, but the Mets aren’t going to score enough runs until all four of these players are healthy and performing at their accustomed level. Given their track records, it’s likely that these four will return to their normal production at some point and the Mets will start winning a lot more games when that occurs.
Corner outfield offense
The Mets are getting no offensive production from rookie right fielder Carson Benge, and their left field options haven’t been much better with Brett Baty, Tyrone Taylor and Tommy Pham hitting under .200 combined. It’s an area the front office will have to address. Optioning Benge to Triple A for a couple of weeks to get him going might make sense if he doesn’t start hitting soon.
Infield issues
The Mets went into the season with their two starting corner infielders — Bichette and Polanco — playing their positions regularly for the first time. I do think that Bichette will be adequate at third base eventually, but the Mets haven’t found a solution for first base, whether it be Polanco, Mark Vientos or Jared Young at that spot. Marcus Semien has been an upgrade defensively at second base, but he’s continuing to show decline at the plate. The Brandon Nimmo-for-Semien trade was a mistake; there’s no other way to characterize it. In time, the best play will be to move Bichette to second base, where he’s better suited than at third.
Kodai Senga is a significant concern for the Mets. (Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
Back of the rotation
The top of the Mets’ rotation is solid with Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes. However, David Peterson and Kodai Senga have not been good. Peterson was moved to the bullpen, with Christian Scott taking his place in the rotation. I think Peterson should be OK eventually, but Senga scares me. He doesn’t look healthy, his cutter and sweeper are getting crushed and his fastball command in the strike zone is just not there. Meanwhile, Jonah Tong, one of their top pitching prospects, is getting lit up in Triple A.
Back end of the bullpen
The Mets signed a pair of former Yankees, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, to handle the late innings, but those signings haven’t worked out. They also brought in Luis Garcia, but he struggled and was released. Huascar Brazobán has emerged as an effective reliever, but they need more pitchers to step up. While keeping Edwin Díaz, who just landed on the Dodgers’ IL, wouldn’t have likely solved this problem, that doesn’t change the fact that the Mets’ late-inning situation is an issue.
Lack of depth
When injuries and poor performance struck early this season, the Mets’ lack of major-league-ready replacements in Triple A was also exposed, forcing them to turn to 38-year-old outfielder Tommy Pham and 37-year-old Craig Kimbrel as stop-gap measures.
How do you fix it?
Manager Carlos Mendoza is not the problem here and should not take the fall. The roster has a lot of issues and injuries have played a huge factor in their slow start.
Once the Mets get Soto, Lindor, Bichette and Polanco on track, they’ll start scoring runs and be more competitive. That said, there are moves they will need to make — whether internally or through trades — to address insufficiencies at the corner outfield spots, the back of their rotation and their bullpen because those problems aren’t likely to fix themselves.
With these many issues, I don’t see the Mets winning the NL East or even becoming a wild-card team. Given this horrific start, finishing better than .500 would be an accomplishment.
4. Boston Red SoxThe problems
Starting rotation
Garrett Crochet was a Cy Young Award runner-up last year, but it has been a different story this year, as he’s been ineffective in three of his five starts. His fastball velocity is down and his arm speed out front doesn’t look the same. He says he’s healthy. If that’s the case, it must be a mechanical issue, and I’m sure they’ll figure that out soon.
Then there is Sonny Gray, who was just placed on the IL with a hamstring injury, not ideal after starting 2-1 with a 4.30 ERA. Brayan Bello has not pitched well either.
The good news is that both Ranger Suárez and Connelly Early have been solid. Fixing Crochet, healing Gray and developing Bello should get this group back to where they were expected to be coming into the season.
Second and third base
Missing Alex Bregman is the Red Sox’s biggest issue, both for what he brought offensively at third base and in the clubhouse as a mentor for Boston’s young players. So far, second and third have been offensive black holes for Boston. Marcelo Mayer has been the primary second baseman and is batting just .182. The Red Sox acquired Caleb Durbin to replace Bregman at third, but he has also really struggled at the plate. They would be best served by trading for a third baseman and letting Durbin and Mayer compete for second base reps.
How do you fix it?
The Red Sox need a third baseman. The Astros (Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes), Twins (Royce Lewis) and Giants (Matt Chapman) could make sense as possible trade partners. The Sox have enough in their farm system to make a deal work. Then they could use Durbin as a super-utility player or second baseman, which would be better roles for him.
Without adding a bat, however, I’m not sure the Red Sox have enough offense to compete for the division. Of the issues they can solve internally, getting Crochet back on track and Gray healthy, are their two most pressing agenda items.
5. Philadelphia PhilliesThe problems
Roster stagnation and complacency
The Phillies have kept the same core together too long without adding fresh talent or more competition for roster spots, and it appears to have caused complacency. Too many players are too comfortable and are not being pushed. This screams that moves need to be made between now and the trade deadline if the Phillies are going to be able to secure a playoff spot.
They still have a strong position player core of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber and a good starting pitching group when healthy that is capable of running the table in October. But the supporting cast needs a makeover.
Outfield corners
The Phillies don’t get enough offense from their outfield corners. They took a chance on Adolis García to be an upgrade over Nick Castellanos in right field and he has done that from a defensive perspective but has not contributed offensively as they hoped. He struggled last year, too, is 33 years old and not getting better. Brandon Marsh hit .280 last year with 11 homers and will probably do the same again this year. When Harper and Turner are putting up MVP-type seasons, getting league-average or worse production from corner outfielders is OK, but when Turner and Harper’s production is more All-Star level instead, the Phillies need more offensively from the corner outfielders.
The Phillies may need to upgrade at third base. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
Second and third base
Bryson Stott is off to a slow start and things have gone so wrong that he stopped using A-OK as his walk-up song this past weekend. I’m not worried about him yet, as he’s a relatively consistent player who should get back to his regular production by the end of the year. Third base is another matter, however. Alec Bohm is off to the worst start of his career and is dealing with a difficult off-the-field issue, which is probably contributing to his awful start.
The Phillies have tried to upgrade at third over the last few years, including this offseason, when they believed they were going to land Bichette. The Phillies were hoping top prospect Aidan Miller could be an early-season answer, but a lower back injury has put that on hold. An upgrade here is needed if Bohm doesn’t start hitting soon.
Wheeler and Nola not the same
Zack Wheeler is set to return to the Phillies on Saturday after five rehab starts. Although he’s coming back, his fastball velocity has been down around 92-93, significantly below his normal velocity of 97-98, and that’s really concerning. In addition, Aaron Nola’s decline continues as we’ve seen his ERA go from 3.57 in 2024 to 6.01 last year to 5.06 to start this year. He’s been mostly reliable in terms of getting through five or six innings, but he isn’t the elite pitcher he was two years ago.
Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and rookie Andrew Painter are a solid trio, but it’s unlikely they make the playoffs if Wheeler and/or Nola can’t get back to form.
Bullpen woes
The Phillies just placed closer Jhoan Duran on the IL with an oblique injury, which puts more pressure on the rest of their bullpen. Their fill-in closer, José Alvarado, still can’t find the strike zone enough and their team bullpen ERA has them in the middle of the pack.
How do you fix it?
The front office needs to be working hard on adding more offense to the lineup, with right field, left field and third base the three main target areas. It’s too early to make trades, but preparing for them in earnest must start now.
They also need to hope that Wheeler and Nola can find their way back to form and that Painter will be a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate by season’s end. A lot must go right for this Phillies team to get back to the playoffs, but there is still a pathway.
6. Toronto Blue JaysThe problems
Position player injuries
Like all of these teams, the Jays have been hit hard by injuries, most notably to key position players Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger and George Springer. Once those three return from the injured list, the offense will be just fine again.
Starting pitcher injuries
Toronto lost Trey Yesavage to a shoulder impingement during spring training, which was a huge blow. They knew Shane Bieber would miss the start of the year with elbow inflammation, but they didn’t expect José Berríos to go on the IL with a stress fracture in his right elbow and Cody Ponce would be lost for the season with a torn ACL during his first start.
The good news is that both Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman have pitched like aces, and the Blue Jays do have veteran depth with Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Eric Lauer. That group should keep them in the race, especially since they also have a deep bullpen. Yesavage is making rehab starts and getting him back will be huge.
Closer stress
Jeff Hoffman has blown three saves already and it’s extremely stressful every time he comes into a game. The good news is they have other options to close in Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland, who are both off to strong starts.
Missing Bichette
There is no doubt this team misses Bichette. Free-agent signing Kazuma Okamoto has at least held his own. Although he’s a below-average defender at third, he does make the routine plays. He’s also a below-average runner, but he’s a smart base runner. He can hit, has average power and does lengthen their lineup, but he’s not Bichette at the plate.
How do you fix it?
The Jays don’t need to do anything. They just need to get their lineup and starting pitching healthy and they’ll be right back in the playoff hunt. Of all the disappointing teams, this is the one that should be the least worried.