Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 22, 2026 , 11:15 AM ET
• 4 min read
A bad pitching matchup will lead the Cubbies to a victory in a game that should see plenty of offense.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alex Bregman (3) hits an RBI single against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Chicago Cubs have won seven straight games, including multi-run victories over Philadelphia in the first two games of the series.
With a fatigued bullpen and Taijuan Walker expected to pitch in bulk relief, my Phillies vs. Cubs predictions expect Chicago to complete the sweep.
Let’s take a closer look at my daily MLB picks for April 22.
Who will win Phillies vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-170)
The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to use Kyle Backhus as an opener before turning to Taijuan Walker for a handful of innings. That’s a recipe for disaster.
Backhus has allowed four runs and a couple of homers in 6 2/3 innings, while Walker’s struggles have been even more alarming.
He owns a 9.16 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, and has surrendered six homers in less than 19 innings of work. That’s resulted in a -0.81 win probability added (WPA), the worst mark of today’s projected arms.
The Chicago Cubs rank fourth in runs per game and OPS, and should be heading for another big day.
COVERS INTEL: Chicago has posted a 21.9% line drive rate at home against right-handed pitching — the fifth-highest mark in the majors.
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Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+110)
Taijuan Walker has allowed four or more runs in three of his four appearances, and that’s no coincidence.
He ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in whiff rate, xERA, and xBA. He can’t miss bats and is allowing a ton of quality contact.
The Phillies have gotten 4 2/3 frames or less from their starter in three straight games and used five relievers yesterday, leaving their bullpen vulnerable behind him.
Matthew Boyd has allowed a sky-high 17.3% barrel rate early on and last pitched April 1, which is less than ideal when taking on a Phillies team with real power.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 3-3, -0.82 units
Over/Under bets: 1-5, -4.72 units
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Moneyline: Phillies +145 | Cubs -170
Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125)
Phillies vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the moneyline in their last seven games (+7.40 Units / 88% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs.
How to watch Phillies vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
First pitch
7:40 p.m. ET
TV
NBCSP, MARQ
Phillies starting pitcher
Kyle Backhus
(0-0, 5.40 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Matthew Boyd
(1-1, 6.75 ERA)
Phillies vs Cubs latest injuries
Phillies vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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