The Boston Red Sox (28-31) and Atlanta Braves (26-30) play the second game of their 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Red Sox ended their 5-game losing streak with a 5-1 win over the Braves Friday, pulling off the upset as +158 road underdogs. The Under (9) also hit, thanks to a strong effort from 6 Boston pitchers who limited Atlanta to 1 earned run on 6 hits. SS Trevor Story hit a 2-run homer, and DH Rafael Devers added a 2-for-4 effort with 2 RBIs.

The Braves dropped their fourth game in 5 outings, falling as -172 home favorites. 1B Matt Olson drove in the team’s only run with a first-inning RBI single. Despite recording 9 strikeouts, SP Grant Holmes allowed 3 earned runs over 5 1/3 innings and was tagged with the loss.

Red Sox at Braves projected starters

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Buehler (4-2, 3.95 ERA) is making his ninth start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 41 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-1 road defeat against Baltimore Orioles Sunday2025 away stats: 2-1, 5.28 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 5.3 K/9 in 3 startsCareer vs. Braves (regular season): 2-1, 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 5 starts

Schwellenbach (3-4, 3.42 ERA) is making his 12th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 68 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER (4 R), 7 H, 0 BB, 11 K in 5-3 home defeat vs. San Diego Padres Sunday2025 home stats: 2-2, 2.62 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 7 startsLast start vs. Red Sox: Win, 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-4 road victory May 18Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 7.71 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 2 starts

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Red Sox at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:22 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -170 (bet $170 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Braves -1.5 (+125)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)Red Sox at Braves picks and predictionsPrediction

Red Sox 4, Braves 3

BET RED SOX (+140).

Neither team enters Saturday in top form, but there’s value in backing the Red Sox as +140 underdogs following their series-opening win Friday. Despite a 12-17 road record, Boston is hitting .248 away from Fenway — 10th-best in MLB.

Atlanta has dropped 3 of its last 4 at Truist Park, and Schwellenbach has struggled, allowing 4+ earned runs in each of his starts against the Red Sox.

Meanwhile, Buehler has been steady, going 3-1 over his last 6 starts without giving up more than 3 earned runs in any outing. With momentum from Friday’s win and a pitching edge on paper, Boston is worth backing again Saturday in a matchup where the odds seem tilted too far in Atlanta’s favor.

PASS.

I’ll keep my wager to the moneyline with the Red Sox getting plus money.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-102).

Saturday’s matchup features 2 strong starters, setting the stage for a potential low-scoring game. The Under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings between the Red Sox and Braves. Boston has stayed Under in 5 of its last 6, while Atlanta is 6-3-1 to the Under in its last 10. Three of Buehler’s last 4 starts have also gone Under.

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