The Cubs and the Diamondbacks are possibly rivals for a wild-card berth into the playoffs. On 27 April, FanGraphs projected them to win 86 and 82 games. This series could possibly decide which team reaches the playoffs.
The Cubs were recently playing hot, with a 10 game winning streak through 24 April. It ended with two losses to the Dodgers.
Top-level comparisons follow.
Defense. He won Gold Gloves in 2023 and 2025 for his play at second base. This season, his 3 OAA ranks 7th in the Majors. Ian Happ, playing left field, who has won Gold Gloves in the latest four seasons, said Nico Hoerner is the definition of a great baseball player.
Batting. Each season starting 2020, his OPS+ was over 100. This season’s 170 is a career best. He had 20 RBIs in the first 20 games. Extrapolating, will he have 160 RBIs by the end of the season? He rarely whiffs (10.1% through 18 April). He has a high squared-up rate (32.6% through 18 April).
Overall Value. In games through 18 April, his 1.7 bWAR led the Majors.
He likes pizza. In a recent interview, he replied 10 to 12, when asked the most slices of pizza he can eat in one sitting.
Zac Gallen. On 25 April, a comeback hit his shoulder. On 26 Nick Piecoro wrote that Torey Lovullo said Gallen was “doing better today.” It is very likely he will pitch this game, which is his next regular start. This season he started 6 games with an ERA of 3.14.
Colin Rea. On 25 April, in the game that broke the Cubs’ 10-game winning streak, he allowed 6 earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Dodgers. Does he have the mental strength to bounce back?
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Ryne Nelson. He has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 5.1 innings pitched (2 games). I’m confident he will bounce back. Prior to those games, his ERA was 3.54.
Shota Imanaga. His season ERA is 3.15.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Cubs.
Merrill Kelly. In his first two starts, his ERA was 9.31. The root cause was his start against the White Sox. Inn game three, he struggled with his command. He walked 5 batters in the first five innings. In the fourth inning, a two-run single scored two walked batters. It happened when his fastball missed the target, instead crossing the center of the plate. If he again struggles, he may not complete 5 innings.
Matthew Boyd. This season, his ERA is 7.00. In three of his four starts, he did not complete 5 innings. That’s encouraging because the Diamondbacks bullpen has twice as many shutdowns.
This matchup of starting pitchers is even.