The good news — great news, in the context of the last three decades — is that the Cincinnati Reds enter Monday’s series opener against the Chicago Cubs at 20-14 on the season. A blink ago they were 20-11, a team with more wins through the end of April than either the 1975 or 1976 clubs that took home World Series trophies.
They’ve got Elly De La Cruz, who looks electric again now that he’s eschewed the thigh injury that sapped him in the second half of 2025. They’ve also got Sal Stewart, who has looked the part of an offensive goliath (and versatile infielder) who’ll be a key cog for years. They’ve also got Chase Burns looking like an absolute star, even though he won’t feature in this series in Wrigley.
It’s been a fun ride so far in 2026, even if the underlying numbers are terrifying.
Cincinnati has been without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo all season, and Brandon Williamson’s shoulder issues sent him to the IL late last week. So, you’ll see Chase Petty called up to start on Monday, something that was an utterly abysmal experience in his rookie year in 2025. Before even getting to Petty, the Reds entered Sunday’s game with a 5.08 xERA from their rotation, a mark that was the 6th worst in all of baseball.
They’ve leaned incredibly hard on their bullpen so far, a group who entered Sunday’s series finale with an abysmal 5.19 xERA – a mark that’s the single worst in the game. That’s fueled by a 5.95 BB/9 (also worst), yet somehow they’ve managed to thread enough needles to post a 4.10 ERA from the unit that screams regression and screams it loudly.
This all comes from a club who still owns just a 90 wRC+ from their offense on the season, ranking 25th of the 30 MLB clubs. Prior to play on Sunday, that was good for a -22 run differential that was worse than the Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox, among others. In other words, were they not simply immaculate in 1-run games so far this season, their overall record would – and perhaps should – look completely inverted.
The hitting has gotten a little better by the week, though there’s still a ton that needs work. I don’t think their bullpen is quite as bad as it should have been, but it’s lacking a truly dominant piece. Their rotation, meanwhile, will get better with Lodolo back Friday and Greene at some point in July, but it still looks like a shell of its 2025 self. So, the ride in 2026 has been fun overall, but it really seems as if the Reds have been flooring it with no doors or seatbelts so far, and it’s fair to wonder just how long that’ll end up paying off.