ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — On a night when the lottery balls fell in favour of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the baseballs bounced against the Blue Jays. One important ball, though, remains in the air.

A hit sneaked under Ernie Clement’s diving glove in Tuesday’s eighth inning, followed by a bouncing grounder that hopped over the mound and skittered into the outfield to hand the Tampa Bay Rays the lead. George Springer, standing in disbelief in the batter’s box an inning later, watched Junior Caminero snare a line drive to end the game, a 4-3 Rays win.

“When you’re playing here or when you’re going through it a little bit, it seems like those balls are just out of reach,” manager John Schneider said.

If the Jays (16-20) had turned their 11 base runners into more than three runs, perhaps the bounces wouldn’t have mattered. If they hadn’t burned two strike challenges early in the game or if they’d been a little crisper in the field or on the basepaths, Tuesday’s contest could’ve been a win. But some days things just don’t go your way. Lately, that’s been the case for a Jays team battered by injuries and struggling to find a path back to .500.

“We just need to be a little bit more fine,” Kevin Gausman said, “when it comes to those small, fundamental things.”

The pressing issue now is the health of one of baseball’s most durable starters.

After a decrease in velocity in recent rehab starts, veteran starter José Berríos went for an MRI on his elbow Tuesday night. The righty, whose season was delayed because of a stress fracture in his throwing elbow, appeared close to a major-league return. Instead, his future and the Jays’ rotation depth now hang in the balance.

“He kind of, after his last couple outings, wanted to make sure everything was good,” Schneider said.

Perhaps Berríos will be fine. The Jays, Schneider said, hope he’s merely experiencing a “dead arm phase” that some starters work through as they build up. A rotation that has already lost Max Scherzer, Cody Ponce, Shane Bieber and Bowden Francis could use some good injury news. But with Berríos’ velocity falling from 93.9 mph in his first rehab starts to 90.8 mph last week, there is reason for concern.

Berríos is pitching through a stress fracture in his elbow, as the righty claimed he experienced no pain while throwing after it was revealed in spring. However, after Berríos’ most recent start in Triple A, Schneider said, there was more pain than expected.

Toronto’s rotation, in the short term, would be fine if Berríos is set back. Patrick Corbin has established himself as an unexpected savior, pitching to a 3.65 ERA in his five starts. Eric Lauer, who was initially slated to move to the bullpen, can stay in the rotation for the next few turns.

If Berrios is out long-term, the rehab progression of Scherzer and Bieber would become much more important. Scherzer’s ankle issue has already cleared up, Schneider said, and now he’s working to rehab forearm tendinitis. Bieber, who joined many recovering Jays in Tampa Bay this week, said he is hoping to face live hitters soon and his progression is “going as planned.” But there are red flags with both starters, too.

Scherzer, though banged up for most of his early 2026 starts, pitched to a 9.64 ERA in 18 2/3 innings and is 41. Bieber had a forearm issue of his own that delayed his season debut, and though the Jays can hope for the best version of the former Cy Young winner later this year, there is no guarantee of his health. The pitching depth doesn’t look particularly deep behind them, either. The Jays need this current starting five to stay healthy and effective or for Bieber, Scherzer or a prospect to step up.

Bad news on Berríos would fit right in with how Toronto’s 2026 season has started. A trip to Tropicana Field has been a clear reminder of just how injured this roster is. Alejandro Kirk (thumb), Addison Barger (ankles), Nathan Lukes (hamstring), Anthony Santander (shoulder) and Yimi García (elbow) were among the many rehabbing Jays who made the 30-minute trip from Toronto’s development complex in Dunedin, Fla., to the Rays’ home park. Though Barger could rejoin the team in the next couple of days, it was merely a brief reunion for the rest before they get back to recovery.

Those injuries aren’t entirely to blame for Toronto’s slow start. The club’s offence has left plenty of runs on the board with runners in scoring position, sitting 16th in baseball in batting average with runners on second or third. The team’s rotation hasn’t gone terribly deep, hauling the seventh-fewest innings of any starting staff. The defence, despite ranking well in advanced metrics, has still committed the fifth-most errors. A lot is contributing to this 16-20 start.

But now, as the Jays await news on Berríos, they could really use a ball to bounce their way.

“Kind of crossing my fingers,” Schneider said.