The Mariners finally showed some life against a really tough opponent, handing the Braves their first series loss of the season earlier this week. All three games were incredibly close affairs as you would expect in a series between two playoff contenders. Seattle now embarks on a seven-game road trip and the beginning of a stretch of 13 straight games without an off day. Despite possessing a record two games below .500, the M’s are still in fine position in the standings because it seems like no other team in the American League actually wants to win — there are just four teams with winning records currently and the Mariners are in possession of a Wild Card berth with their 18-20 record.
Game
Time
Mariners Starter
White Sox Starter
Mariners Win%
White Sox Win%
Game 1
Friday, May 8 | 4:40 pm
RHP Emerson Hancock
RHP Sean Burke
52.8%
47.2%
Game 2
Saturday, May 9 | 4:10 pm
RHP Luis Castillo
LHP Anthony Kay
55.7%
44.3%
Game 3
Sunday, May 10 | 11:10 am
RHP Logan Gilbert
RHP Davis Martin
55.2%
44.8%
Overview
White Sox
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
96 (11th in AL)
103 (3rd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (FRV)
1 (6th)
-12 (15th)
White Sox
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
99 (10th)
96 (5th)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
103 (9th)
82 (2nd)
Mariners
The White Sox have made some quick progress in their rebuild after losing more than 100 games in three straight seasons. It’s easy to improve after losing a record 121 games like they did in 2024, but the forward progress this year has been shocking. The team was the surprising landing spot for Munetaka Murakami this offseason and their crop of young prospects have already started to make big impacts in the majors. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Chicago is 11-7 over its last 18 games. Even though they’re in a pretty favorable spot in the standings — third in the AL Central and just half a game out of a Wild Card spot — I don’t think this team is suddenly a contender this year, but they’re definitely a lot closer to breaking out of their rebuilding cycle than expected.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Sam Antonacci
LF
L
74
9.5%
8.1%
0.148
126
Munetaka Murakami
1B
L
160
34.4%
17.5%
0.328
153
3B
R
159
17.0%
16.4%
0.208
119
SS
L
154
28.6%
9.7%
0.258
127
2B
R
153
24.2%
10.5%
0.098
108
DH
L
121
33.1%
5.8%
0.135
74
Jarred Kelenic (MiLB)
RF
L
104
28.8%
18.3%
0.262
98
CF
L
89
24.7%
6.7%
0.038
78
Drew Romo (MiLB)
C
S
68
26.5%
10.3%
0.263
137
I think there are a bunch of teams who really regret missing out on Murakami this offseason now that they’ve seen what he can do against MLB pitching. Yes, the contact issues are still present — he’s running 34.4% strikeout rate and a 58.9% contact rate — but his walk rate has been surprisingly robust and the power is obviously big enough to play. He’s currently second in the majors with 14 home runs. He’s not the only power hitter in the middle of this lineup either. Colson Montgomery made a splash last summer, blasting 21 home runs in just 71 games after being called up in July. He’s hit another nine to start this year and is playing solid defense at shortstop to boot. Miguel Vargas is the other youngster showing some real progress this season. Pushed off the fringe of the Dodgers roster a few years ago, he’s been able to establish himself with regular playing time in Chicago. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and hits the ball hard enough to run an above average batting line at third base.
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Jarred Kelenic deserves a mention as well. He was recalled from Triple-A last week after Everson Pereira was sidelined with an injury. Kelenic couldn’t establish himself in the two years he spent in Atlanta and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox this offseason. Still just 26 years old, his issues are still the same as ever: trouble making consistent contact.
Probable Pitchers
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Sean Burke
39.2
20.5%
5.1%
6.8%
42.5%
2.72
3.19
Emerson Hancock
41.2
28.9%
3.8%
17.5%
46.7%
2.59
3.69
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
28.8%
42.9%
94.0
112
97
108
0.289
Sinker
24.2%
9.1%
94.2
91
55
196
0.292
Cutter
2.7%
6.9%
89.9
86
Changeup
0.4%
6.9%
85.8
Curveball
16.7%
28.8%
79.3
87
58
112
0.306
Slider
27.3%
5.3%
86.5
85
Sean Burke showed some flashes of promise in his first full season in the big leagues last year. His 4.22 ERA was perfectly acceptable for a rebuilding Chicago club, though his 4.92 FIP wasn’t nearly as encouraging. Still, there was a stretch in May and June where he ran a 3.33 ERA and a 4.06 FIP across nine starts. Things are looking up for Burke this year. He’s dramatically improved his command and cut his walk rate by more than half, down to 5.1%. He doesn’t strike out that many guys, but simply reducing the amount of traffic on the bases has helped him dramatically improve his topline results.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
30
14.0%
10.5%
15.4%
39.2%
5.70
6.41
Luis Castillo
34.1
19.4%
8.1%
8.7%
33.0%
6.29
4.25
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
38.2%
35.2%
95.8
91
57
72
0.491
Sinker
13.4%
44.0%
95.1
114
Cutter
24.1%
18.7%
90.9
99
91
158
0.421
Changeup
22.3%
0.0%
85.7
109
Slider
2.0%
2.2%
84.6
109
Sweeper
20.3%
45.1%
82.8
109
78
97
0.323
After a few years of riding the Triple-A shuttle for the Blue Jays, Anthony Kay signed a two-year deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NBP. He excelled in Japan and returned to the US this offseason, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. He developed a sinker and a sweeper overseas, giving him a much deeper repertoire to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, that revamped arsenal hasn’t helped him find much success against batters this year. The stuff models really like his sinker and a few of his secondary pitches, but he’s throwing a thoroughly mediocre four-seam fastball 30% of the time right now. That pitch is getting absolutely crushed. He simply isn’t working deep enough into counts to properly utilize his secondary pitches, his strike out rate has cratered to just 14.0%, and his ERA and FIP are both approaching six.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
44
25.4%
4.7%
4.9%
38.6%
1.64
2.46
Logan Gilbert
44
23.2%
5.4%
15.4%
36.7%
4.30
4.43
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
21.8%
28.9%
94.0
96
111
102
0.356
Sinker
20.2%
11.5%
92.8
86
Cutter
10.3%
19.5%
89.6
89
105
82
0.468
Changeup
10.7%
21.4%
90.1
86
45
85
0.356
Curveball
5.8%
14.3%
82.1
91
Slider
31.3%
4.4%
87.1
95
Davis Martin has quietly led the White Sox rotation with a 1.64 ERA and 2.46 FIP in seven starts this year. He’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.17 to 5.38 this year, adding more than eight points to his strikeout rate while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 4.7%. He’s added a cutter to his pitch mix this year, giving him six weapons to use against opposing batters. None of them stand out individually in the stuff models, but his slider looks like one of the nastiest pitches in baseball right now. The whiff rate on that breaking ball is 59.6%, the second highest whiff rate on a slider in baseball. Opposing batters are running a sub-.200 wOBA against his three secondary pitches, and a plus-.300 wOBA against his three fastball variations. The problem is that batters have been struggling to identify his pitches — his called strike rate is up 3.5 points this year — so even if they’re making good contact against his fastballs, they’re just as likely to whiff or mishit one of his secondary offerings.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Athletics
19-18
0.514
—
-10
L-W-L-L-W
Mariners
18-20
0.474
1.5
+4
L-L-W-L-W
Rangers
17-20
0.459
2.0
-6
L-L-L-W-L
Astros
15-23
0.395
4.5
-37
W-W-L-W-L
Angels
15-23
0.395
4.5
-14
W-L-L-W-W
The Athletics managed to avoid a sweep in Philadelphia with a 12-1 blowout win yesterday. They head to Baltimore this weekend looking to maintain their grip on the AL West lead. The Rangers lost their series in New York against the Yankees and will return home to face the red-hot Cubs this weekend. The blows just keep coming for the Astros: Carlos Correa has been sidelined for the season with an ankle injury suffered on Tuesday. Houston wound up losing its series against the Dodgers and will head to Cincinnati this weekend.