The Diamondbacks are struggling, to say the least. They’re coming off another losing series, this time to the Pirates, where they had one game where everything went swimmingly, then ran into the buzzsaws of Skenes and Present Day Gallen. They’ve lost seven of their last ten, and they are already 5.5 games behind the Dodgers and 3 behind the Pirates and the final Wild Card. The season is almost 25% complete. It’s no longer too early to start looking at that. They need a turnaround. Fast.

Enter the Mets. If there was a team in baseball for the Diamondbacks to right the ship, they would be the one. They’ve done slightly better of late, going 5-5 over their last ten, but that has only brought them to 14-23, which is good enough for dead last in all of baseball, tied with only the Giants. They will be the poster children for the MLBPA as they argue that spending money doesn’t guarantee winning and there doesn’t actually need to be a salary cap after all.

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Game 1 — 5/8, 6:40 PM: Ryne Nelson (-0.8 bWAR, 1-3, 6.61 ERA/64 ERA+, 1.43 WHIP) vs. Nolan McLean (0.6 bWAR, 1-2, 2.97 ERA/134 ERA+, 0.94 WHIP)

Nelson pitched pretty decently his last time out against the red hot Cubs. He went 5 2/3 inning, only giving up a run. He did give up two unintentional walks, but balanced it with four strikeouts. Because the offense is struggling nearly as much as the pitching is, that one run was enough for him to get tagged for the loss. Karma for the no decision in his five inning, six run start the game prior. Like all of the starting pitchers on the team, Nelson needs to get it figured out, and fast. This will be a good place to build a trend of his start against the Cubs.

McLean has been a bright spot for the Mets this season. He’s gone out for seven starts so far, and he has yet to give up more than three runs in any of them. However, he is coming off his worst start of the season, where he only lasted four innings and gave up three earned runs. He has already faced the Diamondbacks this season, and it didn’t go great for them. It was a 6 1/3 inning start. They only managed two runs, and they struck out eight times.

Game 2 — 5/9, 4:15: Merrill Kelly (-0.8 bWAR, 1-3, 9.95 ERA/43 ERA+, 2.31 WHIP) Clay Holmes (1.7 bWAR, 4-2, 1.69 ERA/236 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP)

Merrill Kelly is broken, and I’m not sure what else to say here. His command is gone. His ability to prevent runs is gone. It’s early still, but he is on the path to becoming yet another pitcher that the Diamondbacks signed to a multi-year contract and just tanked as soon as they put on the uniform. I’m not sure if it’s fixable. I’m not sure if it’s an injury. I’m not sure if it’s just the undefeated Father Time who comes for us all in the end. But he and the coaching staff need to figure out something soon, or it’s going to be a very long three years.

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Holmes has also pitched exceptionally well for the Mets this season. He hasn’t given up more than two runs and has held his opponents scoreless twice already, while pitching into the sixth inning or later every time. One thing of note, however, is that his FIP is 3.65, basically two full runs higher than his ERA. That suggests that he is pitching a bit over his head, and that there might be room for regression if the Diamondbacks’ bats can wake up like they did in Game 1 against the Pirates.

This game will be nationally broadcast on FOX and will not be available on DbacksTV.

Game 3 — 5/10, 1:10 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (1.3 bWAR, 3-0, 2.50 ERA/168 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP) vs. TBD

E-Rod is coming off his best start as a Diamondback, seven innings, no runs allowed. It was a very emphatic answer to the meeting Torey Lovullo had with the starting pitchers prior to the game. Even before that, however, Rodriguez has been pitching well this season. He had a couple of bumpy starts where he gave up four runs, but in the two starts since then, he’s pitched better.

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Conclusion

Well, if you look at just these pitching matchups, it sure is hard to see why the Mets are struggling so bad, isn’t it? Unfortunately for the Mets, starting pitching will only get you so far. If you have a team batting average of .230 and an OPS+ of 83, even giving up two runs is close to catastrophic, which is why this could be a bounce back series for the Diamondbacks. Eduardo pitches like he has most of the season, and either Nelson or Kelly have a good game, this easily goes to the Diamondbacks. Now, how confident am I that will happen? Right now? Not very! but hopefully they’ll prove me wrong.