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The St. Louis Cardinals will look to extend their five-game road winning streak as they play the second game of their series with the San Diego Padres on Friday night.

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San Diego’s bats match up well with St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy, so I’m taking the home team to win in my Cardinals vs. Padres predictions.

Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and break down my top MLB picks for Friday, May 8.

Who will win Cardinals vs Padres today: Padres (-146)

Michael McGreevy has put up good raw numbers to start the season for the St. Louis Cardinals, but a deeper dig tells a different story. McGreevy has a FIP of 4.18 and an xERA of 5.78, making regression seem nearly inevitable no matter what analytics you prefer.

Similarly, the San Diego Padres have some big bats that appear to be off to slow starts, with Fernando Tatis Jr. having yet to hit a homer this season. But with a hard hit percentage of 58.8%, Tatis is still ripping the ball, and McGreevy has been getting away with bad pitches more than he will going forward. San Diego should be able to generate enough offense to win at home tonight.

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COVERS INTEL:

McGreevy is allowing a barrel percentage of 11.4% to batters this season, which ranks in the bottom 20% of MLB pitchers.

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Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-130)

The Padres and Cardinals combined for just three runs yesterday, and while I like San Diego’s chances of doing some damage off McGreevy, there’s no denying that this looks like a strong pitching matchup. Griffin Canning came back strong in his first start of 2026, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven over five innings of work on Sunday.

Both pitchers are effective enough to take advantage of this stadium, as Petco Park has the seventh-lowest park factor in the majors over the past three seasons. Neither team has been hot at the plate lately – the Cardinals have averaged 2.8 runs per game over their last five games, with the Padres averaging 3.43 over their last seven contests – and I’m expecting another low-scoring affair tonight.

Ed Scimia’s 2026 Transparency Record

ML/RL bets: 6-12, -6.31 units

Over/Under bets: 6-10, -4.35 units

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Cardinals vs Padres odds

Moneyline: Cardinals +131 | Padres -138

Run line: Cardinals +1.5  (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+148)

Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Cardinals vs Padres trend

The Under is 5-1 in San Diego’s last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.

How to watch Cardinals vs Padres and game info

Location

Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Date

Friday, May 8, 2026

First pitch

9:45 p.m. ET

TV

Apple TV

Cardinals starting pitcher

Michael McGreevy
(2-2, 2.52 ERA)

Padres starting pitcher

Griffin Canning
(0-0, 1.80 ERA)

Cardinals vs Padres latest injuriesCardinals vs Padres weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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