Controversial headline? Sure. But maybe it’s time to have the conversation, because as Logan Webb goes, so goes the Giants. And, uh, in case you haven’t been watching closely, the 2026 San Francisco Giants are seemingly going nowhere.
By some measures, Logan Webb is having the worst start to a season of his wonderful career. His debut in 2019 involved 8 starts in 8 appearances where over 39.2 innings pitched he posted a 5.22 ERA (4.12 FIP), 1.462 WHIP, 21.3 K%, and 8.0 BB%. Depending on the advanced metric you want to use, he was either a 123 ERA- (23% worse than league average) or 81 ERA+ (19% worse).
But maybe it’s not so bad? He left his last start after just 4 innings, allegedly because of knee troubles. As old friend Henry Schulman writes for MLB.com:
[It’s] an injury that might prove to be a relief compared to intangible speculation that three straight 200-inning seasons, or ramping up too early in this year’s World Baseball Classic, or some other hard-to-pinpoint development might be behind Webb’s bad start to 2026.
Well, when someone puts it that way, it somehow feels more likely that it’s those other things and the knee problem serves as a convenient explanation. On the other hand, Webb did dominate in the World Baseball Classic, with 11 strikeouts in 8.2 IP and just 1 run allowed in 2 starts. The regular season workloads coupled with the early ramp might’ve contributed to a knee problem. His pre-knee problem starts showed the same Logan Webb from a stuff & Statcast perspective, too, so in a small sample of 7 or so starts, bad luck is a reasonable conclusion.
But let’s take a look at pitchers to register 1,000+ innings before their age-29 season (Webb’s current season), and just to keep the list manageable and omit the Tungsten Arm O’Doyles of the baseball world, let’s look at those pitchers in the Wild Card era (since 1995). It’s just 90 times in 31 years. Most of these names will be incredibly familiar to you. These were the reliable 200 innings a year guys. Here are the top 10:
PlayerIPSeasonsAgesERAWHIPper 9sFelix Hernandez2,060.22005-201419-283.071.170.7 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9CC Sabathia1,889.12001-200920-283.621.230.8 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9Clayton Kershaw1,7602008-201620-282.371.000.5 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 9.8 K/9Matt Cain1,7212005-201320-283.351.170.8 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9Rick Porcello1,671.22009-201720-284.251.321.1 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 6.3 K/9Javier Vazquez1,6431998-200521-284.281.271.2 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9Madison Bumgarner1,638.12009-201819-283.031.110.9 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.7 K/9Mark Buehrle1,6292000-200721-283.801.261.0 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 5.2 K/9Jon Garland1,625.12000-200820-284.471.391.1 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9Carlos Zambrano1,551.12001-200920-284.511.300.7 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9
Other Giants in this group of 90: Livan Hernandez (1,449.1), Sidney Ponson (1,443.1), Barry Zito (1,430.1), Jake Peavy (1,362.2), Justin Verlander (1,315.1), Mike Leake (1,260.1), Tim Hudson (1,240.2), Tim Lincecum (1,214), Johnny Cueto (1,208.1), Brad Penny (1,157.2), Trevor Cahill (1,149.1), Jose Quintana (1,139.2), and Scott Kazmir (1,022).
Logan Webb is 73rd on the list with 1,062.1 innings pitched from 2019-2025, his age-22 throuh age-28 seasons.
But, gosh, I hope just given this list of names you see where I’m going with this.
Since Logan Webb’s contract runs through his age-31 season, let’s look at the next 540 innings (180 innings a season) for the players I just referenced. First, though, the total number of pitchers in the Wild Card era to throw at least 540 innings across their age 29-31 seasons numbers 83. It is a much different top 10:
PlayerIPERALivan Hernandez717.14.10Curt Schilling706.13.13James Shields705.23.15Scott Erickson703.14.17Roy Halladay691.13.22Greg Maddux687.12.21Jon Lieber686.24.10Bartolo Colon683.23.90Max Scherzer677.12.96John Smoltz677.12.96
[takes a beat to process the similarites between Max Scherzer and John Smoltz.]
So, this list plugs in some players I might’ve expected to be in the top 10 of the prior list, namely Maddux, Schilling, and Colon. Maddux’s omission is attributable to the “Wild Card era” cutoff. He made his debut at 20 years old and from 20-28 threw 1,911 IP. That would place him ahead of CC Sabathia in the first list. The other two didn’t hit 1,000 innings: Curt Schilling debuted in his age-21 season (again, before the Wild Card era), but amassed just 805 IP from 21-28. Bartolo Colon debuted in his age-24 season (94 IP) and got to 819.1 IP before his age-29 season.
So, I think the 1,000 innings starting point is meaningul. Let’s see what happened to the top 10 list of pre-29s who had 1,000+ innings under their belt heading into it, as Logan Webb has done here in 2026.
PlayerIPSeasonsAgesERAWHIPper 9sFelix Hernandez441.22015-201729-313.791.251.2 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9CC Sabathia6752010-201229-313.171.190.8 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9Clayton Kershaw514.22017-201929-312.691.011.2 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 9.5 K/9Matt Cain240.12014-201629-315.131.411.5 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9Rick Porcello424.22018-202029-314.981.311.3 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9Javier Vazquez627.22006-200829-314.401.251.1 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9Madison Bumgarner395.22019-202129-314.461.181.5 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9Mark Buehrle642.12008-201029-313.971.330.9 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.8 K/9Jon Garland4582009-201129-313.811.391.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 5.4 K/9Carlos Zambrano407.22010-201229-314.241.460.8 HR/9, 4.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9
Basically, 3 of the top 10 200+ innings a year guys stayed that way heading into their thirties (Sabathia, Kershaw, and Buehrle). The uglier part of going through this list (and the whole list of 90) is seeing the burnout either during or soon after their 29-31 seasons, largely due to injury.
Matt Cain made 23 starts in 27 appearances and threw 124.1 innings in his final year of MLB, his age-32 season. He had those loose bodies in his pitching elbow, remember?Rick Porcello, Jon Garland, and Carlos Zambrano were all done after 31.Felix Hernandez pitched two more seasons (18 & 19) and posted a 5.82 ERA in 227.1 innings. Not sure if Hernandez was injured so much as rung out.While Bumgarner did get to 207.2 IP for the Giants in 2019 (his age-29 season), he struggled through the next four (and final) seasons of his career in Arizona, posting a 5.23 ERA in 363.1 IP). To put it another way: after throwing 1,600+ innings across his first 10 seasons, he’d throw just 571 more over his next five. He was never the same after that dirt bike accident.
Of the aforementioned former Giants besides Livan Hernandez:
Sidney Ponson threw just 317 innings of 6.02 ERA ball after his age-28 season. He was done after 32.Jose Quintana is still going! He’ll exceed 1,000 innings pitched since the start of his age-29 season at some point this season with the Rockies. He’s no longer a reliable 200 innings a year guy, but he has a 4.03 ERA since turning 29 (3.53 prior).Trevor Cahill caught the injury bug earlier, following a 4-year stretch (ages 21-24) of 178.2 IP, 196.2 IP, 207.2 IP, 200.0 IP with 146.2 IP, 110.2 IP, 43.1 IP, 65.2 IP, (25-28). He was done at 33, and from 29-33 he threw just 358.1 IP with a 4.92 ERA.The first year of Barry Zito’s Giants contract was his age-29 season. Most of us remember how that went! Some plusses, plenty of minuses.Brad Penny threw 208 innings in his age-29 season and was an All-Star who placed third in NL Cy Young voting. But from 30-36, he threw just 559.1 innings of 5.23 ERA ball.Mike Leake was done after 31.Scott Kazmir threw 531.1 innings from 29-31, which is good especially in this analysis. A 3.54 ERA in 92 starts — great, too! But after 2016 (age-32) he was out of baseball until 11.1 innings with the Giants in 2021.Johnny Cueto’s age 29 season saw him traded from the Reds to the Royals, which helped Kansas City win the World Series that year. The Giants would sign him in the offseason, making the first year of that long-term commitment his age-30 season. It was spectacular: a 2.79 ERA in 219.2 IP. 5 complete games and 2 shutouts. But his age-31 season saw just 147.1 IP with a 4.52 ERA. He he had one last good year (a 3.35 ERA with the White Sox in 2022), but from 32-38 he threw just 469 innings.Tim Lincecum is almost too sad to talk about. The wheels fell off in his age-28 season, even as he threw 186 innings, but after that he lasted just 4 more major league seasons (29-32) and had a 4.85 ERA in 468 innings.Jake Peavy (1,362.2) threw 1,014.1 innings from his age-29 season until the end (age-35) and was pretty decent over that span. Helped the Giants win the World Series in 2014, even. He had that really bad latissimus dorsi shoulder blade injury that ended his 2010 season (age-29). If you recall watching the replay on that, he reacted as though his shoulder had exploded internally right after throwing a pitch and he jumped off the mound.Tim Hudson is another outlier, with 1,240.2 innings before his age-29 season and 1,886 age 29 and beyond.Justin Verlander missed a chunk of time in 2014 (age-31) due to surgery in his “core muscle” (abdomen and groin). That limited him to just 133.1 innings in 2015. But, he’s certainly the outlier for this analysis, as he’s logged 2,256 innings since the start of his age-29 season and had nearly 300 more innings than Webb did at the same point in their careers despite both debuting at 22.
So, what have we learned here? Well, after all those innings before 29, in most cases, 29 marks the beginning of a noticeable decline or the last season comparable to the several that had preceded it that got them to 1,000+ innings. Usually because an injury derails their flow. After that, some pitchers are able to stabilize and continue on with their great careers while others — and I’d daresay most — do not. There doesn’t appear to be a pattern, so sinkerballs, flamethrowers, lefties or crafty lefties all seem just as likely to fall apart or turn into the skid. Maybe I could’ve made the analysis simpler by saying, “Of these arms with 1,000+ innings before their age-29 season, how many of them were still solidly above average — and for how long? — once they turned 29?” In that case, I’ll tell you:
Sabathia, Kershaw, Beuhrle, Brad Radke (maybe, though he was done after 33), Zack Greinke, Livan Hernandez (also a maybe), Cole Hamels, Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana, Jeff Suppan (another maybe), Andy Pettitte, Tim Hudson, Kevin Millwood, David Price (maybe), Roy Oswalt, Gerrit Cole, Kyle Lohse, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Randy Wolf (maybe), Roy Halladay, Joel Pineiro (maybe), Gio Gonzalez (maybe), Ryan Dempster, Aaron Nola (maybe — seems like he’s slid off it as of this season), and Max Scherzer.
That’s 29 of 90 who are good after 28, with 8 players maybe not being “good” in the way that they were in their younger days or even relative to the rest of the league. But maybe you figure 1/3 of pitchers washout because of that workload in their youth. That makes sense. It’s the injuries combined with the innings mileage that tends to do in these players, though, so if Logan Webb’s knee is the start of something big, then it’s possible that his days are numbered.