This probably won’t come as a shock, but this season hasn’t exactly gotten off to a good start for the Red Sox.
Since opening the year 2-8, the club has spent almost the entire season in or tied for last in the American League East. The Red Sox have battled key injuries in the starting rotation as well as severe underperformance across the starting lineup, and things got so bad that the club wound up purging the coaching staff after only 27 games.
And yet, heading into this weekend, the Red Sox sat only one game below the playoff cutline.
This has been a historically poor year for the American League, whose clubs have been dominated by their National League counterparts in interleague matchups. That has led to a wildly lopsided situation in the standings where, as recently as Thursday, only two of the AL’s 15 teams had winning records.
At that point, the Cleveland Guardians and Athletics both led their respective divisions despite only being .500. All of the other clubs in both the AL Central and AL West had losing records, as did the bottom three in the AL East behind the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who have clearly separated themselves as the class of the AL.
The Guardians and A’s have since creeped over .500, but the overall picture remains bleak. Had the playoffs started Saturday afternoon the AL bracket would have included the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers, both of whom had losing records.
No team with a losing record has ever made the playoffs over a full 162-game season.
While the AL is obviously down compared to previous years, the situation has so far played to the Red Sox’s benefit. Where in the past the Red Sox would already have a huge hill to climb, instead the club remains solidly in the hunt and might only be a short winning streak away from getting right back into the wild card picture.
“It’s no secret when you look at the standings nothing in the American League has really separated itself, which, to be honest with you, it’s May, it’s probably too early to even be talking about it, but it’s good news for us because of the start we’ve had,” Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said earlier this week. “So you look at it like there’s a lot of season left and you’re sitting right there.”
Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story, left, slides safely past Tampa Bay Rays catcher Nick Fortes during the third inning at Fenway Park. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
Since interleague play began nearly 30 years ago, we’ve rarely seen situations like this in the AL.
Entering Saturday, the AL was collectively 80-103 against the NL, which works out to a .437 win percentage. That would rank as the AL’s worst win percentage against the NL since interleague play began in 1997, beating out the previous nadir of .447 in 2019. That mark is especially glaring when you consider the AL has historically gotten the better of the NL, owning a 20-8-1 all-time record in the season series.
The NL holds the all-time worst mark in the interleague series, which came in 2006 when the league collectively went 98-154 (.389) against the AL.
That ineptitude contributed to the St. Louis Cardinals winning the NL Central with an 83-79 record, though they went on to win the club’s first World Series since 1982.
Besides the AL clubs being outclassed by their senior circuit counterparts, the other reason why there have been so many teams with underwhelming records is the presence of a small handful of wagons. There are currently four teams, two in each league, who have already won 25 games with win percentages above .650. Those are the Yankees and the Rays in the AL and the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs in the NL, and all have done a great job beating up on just about everyone who has crossed their paths.
Meanwhile, while those teams have separated themselves from the pack, most of the preseason AL contenders have crashed and burned.
The Red Sox’s struggles are no secret, but the defending World Series runner-up Toronto Blue Jays have wildly disappointed as well. So have the Baltimore Orioles, who came into the weekend having lost seven of 10, and now both of those teams have fallen into the basement alongside Boston.
Things haven’t gone smoothly for the Mariners, either. That club was expected to run away with the AL West, but while their pitching has been excellent as expected, their offense ranks among the worst in MLB in runs per game.
Will the standings still look this way once we get to the All-Star break? Probably not, but for as bad as things have gone for the Red Sox, all of their goals are still within reach.
“So being this early, I think it’s good news that’s happened and we haven’t fallen way far behind in the wild-card race, but I think the nature of that many teams that get in, nobody right now is thinking, ‘Oh we’re done, we’re out,’” Tracy said. “No, there’s a lot of baseball to go.”
Former Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers has gotten off to a terrible start at the plate for the San Francisco Giants this season. (AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
Devers, Giants off to rough start
When the Red Sox offense was at its worst last month, it would have been understandable for some fans to imagine how different things could have been if Rafael Devers were still in the heart of the lineup.
Maybe Devers’ power could have given the club a lift, but things haven’t exactly been going swimmingly for him or his new club out west.
Devers got off to a rough start this season, and his struggles are among the reasons why the San Francisco Giants currently rank as MLB’s worst offensive team. Entering Saturday, the former Red Sox slugger was batting .229 with four home runs, 16 RBI, a .625 OPS and -0.7 wins above replacement, all of which are well short of his usual standards.
The advanced metrics paint a particularly bleak picture. Devers’ OPS+ (79) and wRC+ (74) — statistics that measure overall offensive production where 100 equals league average — are not only close to 50 points below what Devers posted last season, but put him among the bottom 20 in MLB among all players with at least 150 plate appearances.
His Statcast page is also covered in dark blue, with Devers ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in most offensive metrics. His batting run value of -8 in particular puts him in the 7th percentile in MLB, compared to last season when he ranked 94th percentile in that same category.
It stands to reason Devers will turn things around at some point, but if this turns out to be the beginning of a long-term decline, then the Red Sox’s decision to trade him last summer could wind up looking good in hindsight.
How about Alex Bregman? The other All-Star third baseman who the Red Sox lost this past year hasn’t had a great season at the plate either, but he’s still elevated the Chicago Cubs into one of the best teams in baseball.
Entering Saturday, Bregman was hitting .239 with three home runs, 13 RBI, a .677 OPS and 0.5 WAR. His advanced metrics are closer to league average, though he’s been exceptional at avoiding swing-and-miss. But unlike Devers’ Giants, who were tied for the fewest wins in MLB coming into the weekend, the Cubs were 27-12 and have put together two separate 10-game win streaks.
Former Red Sox left-hander Kyle Harrison has looked like a steal for the Milwaukee Brewers since his arrival in a trade this spring. (AP Photo/Jess Rapfogel)
Brewers made out like bandits
One of the last big moves of the offseason was the spring trade that saw the Red Sox swap pitchers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan and utility man David Hamilton to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for infielders Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler.
It’s safe to say that through the first month and change the Brewers have come out ahead on that deal.
Harrison, a young left-hander originally acquired in the Devers trade, has blossomed into a terrific starter for the Brewers. Prior to his start against the Yankees Saturday night, he’d posted a 2.12 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings through his first six starts.
Drohan, a career minor leaguer who was added to the 40-man roster over the offseason before the trade, has exceeded expectations, too. The 27-year-old posted a 3.38 ERA over his first six big league appearances, recording his first career save Friday night.
Hamilton hasn’t produced much for Milwaukee, though his seven stolen bases are tied for the team lead.
Durbin, the main return for the Red Sox, was installed as the club’s Opening Day third baseman but has endured a brutal start at the plate. The 26-year-old came into the weekend batting .177 with one home run, 14 RBI and a .514 OPS. He has pulled his weight on defense, though, ranking tied for second among all MLB third basemen with plus-six defensive runs saved.
Monasterio established himself as a useful and versatile bench piece, but his numbers haven’t jumped off the page. As for Seigler, he was hampered by injuries throughout spring and has so far played exclusively at Triple-A Worcester, where he’s batting .288 with an .884 OPS in 15 games.