May 10, 2026, 11:31 p.m. ET
The Seattle Mariners (19-22) open a 4-game series against the Houston Astros (16-25) Monday with an 8:10 p.m. ET (FS1) first pitch from Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 4-0 with a sweep in Seattle April 10-13
Seattle has dropped back-to-back games after falling 2-1 against the Chicago White Sox in the rubber match of their series Sunday, failing to cover as a -136 road favorite with the Under (8.0) hitting with ease. LF Randy Arozarena batted in the Mariners’ only run of the game in the first inning.
Houston has dropped back-to-back games after falling 5-0 in the rubber match of their series with the Cincinnati Reds Sunday, failing to cover as a -106 road favorite with the Under (9.5) hitting. The Astros were held to just 3 hits, while RHP Kai-Wei Teng (3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) picked up the loss.
Watch MLB on Fubo!Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Peter Lambert
Kirby (4-2, 2.94 ERA) makes his ninth start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 52 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 3-2 home loss vs. Atlanta Braves TuesdayCareer vs. Astros: 5-1, 2.17 ERA (58 IP, 14 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 10 starts
Lambert (2-2, 2.42 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 22 1/3 innings.
Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 4 K in a 2-1 home victory vs. LA Dodgers TuesdayCareer vs. Mariners: 0-1, 18.00 ERA (3 IP, 6 ER), 2.00 WHIP, 15 K/9 in 1 startMariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:14 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Mariners -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (-140)Over/Under (O/U): 8.0 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictionsPrediction
Mariners 4, Astros 2
BET MARINERS (-140).
The Mariners dominated the Astros with a 4-game sweep in their first series in early April, winning by a combined score of 29-16. While they are coming off a series loss, Kirby will be the difference-maker in this game. He has had resounding success in his career against the Astros, while the Mariners have won 4 of his last 5 starts.
The Astros have dropped 3 of their last 4 and have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5. They are also just 2-8 in their last 10 at home.
PASS.
There is better value on the Mariners’ moneyline.
Each of the Astros’ last 13 losses have come by at least 2 runs, lessening the safety of taking their spread.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
Kirby has allowed 2 or fewer ER in each of his last 5 starts, with the Mariners opponents scoring 3 or fewer runs in each of those games. The Mariners have a 3-6-1 Over record over their last 10 games, hitting the under in 4 of their last 5. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 8, while allowing 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 5.
The Astros have hit the Under in back-to-back games and 3 of their last 5. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 and 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 9. They have allowed 3 or fewer in back-to-back games and in 6 of their last 9.
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