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The Houston Astros have dropped five of their last six games and been outscored 32-11 in the process.
My Rangers vs. Astros predictions expect their losing ways to continue against a Texas team that has hit very well on the road.
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Let’s dive deeper into my MLB picks for Friday, May 15.
Who will win Rangers vs Astros today: Rangers moneyline (-110)
Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti owns a 4.64 xFIP and ranks in the 16th percentile in xERA, yet his actual ERA sits at 1.88.
He’s heading for significant regression, and the Texas Rangers are capable of forcing the issue.
The Rangers rank Top 5 in batting average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and hard hit rate against right-handed pitching on the road.
Jack Leiter, whose xFIP (3.57) is well below his ERA (4.85), should build on nearly five innings of shutout ball against an injury-plagued Astros offense.
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COVERS INTEL:
Arrighetti’s ERA-FIP of -1.78 ranks dead-last among today’s projected starters, a signal he is undeserving of his strong results.
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Rangers vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
Leiter has allowed five hits or fewer in three of his past four starts, and is coming off his best outing of the season against the Cubs.
He’s in a good spot to build on that performance vs. the Astros, who have cluster injuries on offense and rank 29th in runs scored since May 3. Even if Leiter can’t give the Rangers a lot of length, their bullpen ranks first in ERA.
The Rangers are well-equipped to keep the Astros to a low number, which could mean six or seven runs are needed to go Over the total.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 17-7, +7.28 units
Over/Under bets: 10-13-1, -4.11 units
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Rangers vs Astros odds
Moneyline: Rangers -110 | Astros -110
Run line: Rangers -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Rangers vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit their team total Under in 14 of the last 19 games (+7.7 units, 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros.
How to watch Rangers vs Astros and game info
Location
Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date
Friday, May 15, 2026
First pitch
8:10 p.m. ET
TV
Rangers Sports Network, Space City Home Network
Rangers starting pitcher
Jack Leiter
(1-3, 4.85 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher
Spencer Arrighetti
(4-1, 1.88 ERA)
Rangers vs Astros latest injuriesRangers vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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